Alabama vs Ole Miss betting preview
The Crimson Tide opened as 16-point favorites over the Rebels in one the biggest tests left on Alabama’s schedule.
Nick Saban’s team did not play well in Saturday’s win over Colorado State, but has had a tendency to rise to the occasion when faced with a conference challenge.
Alabama has won 15 of the last 17 meetings against the Rebels, including a 33-14 rout in Tuscaloosa last season. The Crimson Tide have won the last five games vs. Ole Miss by an average score of 30.8-10.8.
But Ole Miss is a rising program under coach Hugh Freeze, who is a remarkable 23-6 against the spread as a college head coach. The Rebels are 3-0, with impressive road wins at Vanderbilt and at Texas. They’re averaging 250 rushing yards and 38 points per game.
Ole Miss has covered the spread in seven of their last 10 SEC games. Alabama is 1-4 against the spread in its last five conference games. The Rebels own a 6-2 ATS edge in eight meetings with Bama as well.
This season the Crimson Tide are 3-0 overall and 1-2 ATS against the number, while the Rebels are 3-0 and 2-1 ATS. As for the totals, Alabama is 2-1 on the OU, and Mississippi is 2-1.
Bettors going with the Crimson Tide in this game found them listed as -16-point favorites on the betting line at Sportsbook.ag earlier in the week.
The OddsShark Power Rankings have the Crimson Tide at No. 3 and the Rebels at No. 36 heading into this contest. Handicapping models project a 45-41 result in favor of the Crimson Tide.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Alabama's No. 36-ranked offense, averaging 38.33 PPG, against a Rebels defense that ranks No. 57 this week at 23.67 PPG. The Crimson Tide aerial game is averaging 238.67 yards per game, more than the Rebels secondary allows through the air, 218.33 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Rebels own the league's No. 45-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 158.5 yards per game when on the road. Alabama, on the other hand, rates No. 118 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
A few Rebels at Crimson Tide trends to consider:
Mississippi is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Mississippi is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Mississippi's last 7 games
Mississippi is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Alabama is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Alabama's last 6 games
Alabama is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Mississippi at Auburn, Saturday, October 5th
Alabama at Georgia State, Saturday, October 5th