Florida State vs Florida Prediction
In a Sunshine State rivalry bout 10-1 Florida State and 10-1 Florida get together in Tallahassee Saturday afternoon (3:30 pm ET, ABC).
The Seminoles have already won the ACC's Atlantic Division and will play in the ACC championship game, while the Gators tied Georgia for the SEC East Division title but lost the tie-breaker vs. the Bulldogs.
FSU was favored by more than a TD as of mid-week with the total sitting around at 44.5 at most of the best online sportsbooks.
Power Rankings / Prediction: The game pits the Seminoles, currently No. 1 in our OddsShark NCAAF Power Rankings, against the Gators, who rate No. 4 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 53-37 victory for the Seminoles.
The Florida Gators and Florida State Seminoles may not be rivals in the same conference, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be any tension when the two teams collide in the final game of the regular season this Saturday.
College football odds favor the No. 4 Gators, but don’t rule out the No. 10 Seminoles potentially spoiling their opponents’ outside National Championship Game berth.
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In the event that the Gators win, and that No. 1 Notre Dame somehow falls to the short-staffed, under-achieving USC Trojans, it will be Florida lined up against either Georgia or Alabama under the country’s brightest spotlight – the BCS championship – come the new year.
After winning the football community over with a big win over then-No. 4 LSU in Week 6, the Gators have put forth one of the strongest campaigns in the SEC. The dominance has carried over into their NCAA odds. A mainstay toward the top of the BCS futures this fall, the Gators will look to do all that they can do when Week 14 kicks off this weekend.
Even with a big victory over their heated foes from Florida State though, the Gators may still fall short of a BCS championship berth. At least then they’ll head to bowl season knowing that they did everything within their power to get there.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Florida State's No. 7-ranked offense (42.9 PPG) against a Gators defense that ranks No. 3 at 11.7 PPG. The Seminoles passing attack has averaged 281.5 yards per game, more than the Gators give up through the air (185.8 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Gators own the league's No. 15-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 116.5 yards per game when on the road. Florida State, on the other hand, rates No. 8 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Florida was a 23-0 winner in its last match at home against Jacksonville State. The game involved a non-board team, hence there was no line or total on it. In their last game, Florida got a 122-yard performance from Mike Gillislee as a key part of its 23-0 win over Jacksonville State.
Last time out for Florida State, they were a 41-14 winner as they battled Maryland on the road. Florida State failed to cover in the match as a 31-point favorite, while 55 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. Devonta Freeman went over the 100-yard mark (148) in his team's latest effort as Florida State defeated Maryland by a score of 41-14 on Saturday.
Florida Gators Trends:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the conference are 8-2
Florida State Seminoles Trends:
When playing in November are 8-2
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the conference are 9-1
A few Gators at Seminoles trends to consider:
Florida is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida's last 8 games when playing Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida's last 7 games when playing on the road against Florida State
Florida is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Florida State's last 8 games when playing Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida State's last 7 games when playing at home against Florida