Trojans vs Hilltoppers Betting Report
Sun Belt Conference contenders collide as 4-1 Western Kentucky and 3-2 Troy kick off Week 7 of college football betting action Thursday night down in Alabama (7:30 pm ET, ESPNU).
The Hilltoppers, who are 5-0 ATS this season, were early 2.5-point road favorites over the Trojans.
Betting Line: The Hilltoppers were listed as 1.5-point favorites on the opening NCAA football line at 5Dimes and most sportsbooks tracked by OddsShark. The total was set at 56 early in the week over at TopBet.
Power Rankings / Prediction: The Trojans - Hilltoppers odds would favor the Hilltoppers if the lines were set according to power ranks. Troy is rated No. 84 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Hilltoppers sit at No. 8. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 34-29 win for the Hilltoppers.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Troy's No. 75-ranked offense (26.4 PPG) against a Hilltoppers defense that ranks No. 39 at 21.2 PPG. The Trojans passing attack has averaged 324.6 yards per game, more than the Hilltoppers give up through the air (175.4 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Hilltoppers own the league's No. 14-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 90.3 yards per game when on the road. Troy, on the other hand, rates No. 96 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Western Kentucky was a 26-13 winner in their most recent outing on the road against Arkansas State. They covered the 1.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (39) made winners of UNDER bettors. In their last game, Western Kentucky got a 215-yard performance from Antonio Andrews as a key part of its 26-13 win over Arkansas State.
Troy was a 31-10 winner in their most recent outing on the road against South Alabama. They covered the 7.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (41) made winners of UNDER bettors. Troy cruised to victory in its last outing, as they ran up a 31-10 score against South Alabama at Ladd Peebles Stadium.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Trends:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 8-2
Troy Trojans Trends:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the conference are 3-7
A few Hilltoppers at Trojans trends to consider:
Western Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Western Kentucky is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Troy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Troy's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Troy's last 5 games
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Western Kentucky
Troy is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
Western Kentucky home to Louisiana-Monroe, Saturday, October 20
Troy home to Florida International, Saturday, October 20