Mountain West Championship Betting Pick
The 9-2 Boise State Broncos, still with a chance of claiming a share of the Mountain West title, look to do so when they hit Reno to play the 7-4 Nevada Wolf Pack Saturday afternoon (3:30 pm ET, ABC).
In the early wagering the Broncos, whose only conference loss was that upset at the hands of San Diego State, were favored by nine points over the Pack.
Betting Line: Bettors looking to side with the Wolf Pack in this one found them as 7.5-point underdogs at BetOnline. The over under number was slated to open a short time later.
Power Rankings / Prediction: This game matches up the No. 92 (Wolf Pack) and the No. 29 (Broncos) teams in the league, according to our current NCAAF Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 46-35 result in favor of the Broncos is predicted by handicapping models.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Nevada's No. 16-ranked offense (38.5 PPG) against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 5 at 14.4 PPG. The Wolf Pack passing attack has averaged 246.5 yards per game, more than the Broncos give up through the air (159.8 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Broncos own the league's No. 45-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 152.8 yards per game when on the road. Nevada, on the other hand, rates No. 18 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Last time out for Boise State, they were a 42-14 winner as they battled Colorado State at home. Boise State failed to cover in the match as a 29.5-point favorite, while 56 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. Colorado State was unable to contain D.J. Harper in its last action Saturday and the result was a 42-14 Week 12 loss against the Broncos.
Nevada won its last outing, a 31-24 result against New Mexico on November 17. Nevada failed to cover in that game as a 10.5-point favorite, while the 55 combined points took the game UNDER the total.
Boise State Broncos Trends:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1
Nevada Wolf Pack Trends:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the conference are 5-5
A few Broncos at Wolf Pack trends to consider:
Boise State is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Boise State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Nevada
Boise State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boise State's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada's last 5 games
Nevada is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
Nevada is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Nevada is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Boise State