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NFL Player Prop analysis

Steven Jackson goes up against the lackluster Chicago Bears run defense today, but his rushing totals could take a hit because of a lingering back injury.

Jackson missed all of practice this weekend and appeared on the Rams injury list as questionable. It was the same last week, but Jackson still suited up against Seattle and he’s expected to play today versus the Bears.

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What does that mean for Jackson’s props at BetUS? If he was healthy you would expect Jackson’s rushing total prop to be quite high. After all the Bears are giving up an average of 125.6 rushing yards per game this season and Jackson is averaging 121.3 rushing yards per game in his last four games.

Don’t be totally fooled by Jackson’s numbers though. His back injury did limit him a little last week and he only put up 89 yards versus Seattle. That’s likely why his rushing total at BetUS has been set at only 87.5 yards. And, the under is favored at -125, while the Over comes in at -105. Buyer beware if you think Jackson will easily post big numbers and lead to easy money on an Over wager.

NFL prop odds – Quarterback props

Peyton Manning and the Colts put their perfect record on the line against Tennessee. What prop bettors should be worried about is Manning’s passing props. Statistically the Titans have the second worst passing defense in the NFL. However, those numbers are skewed by their awful 0-6 start.

Overall this season the Titans are giving up 266.7 passing yards per game. But, during their five-game winning streak they’ve only allowed over 266.7 yards twice, versus Houston and San Francisco. In their other three games they held their opposition to less than 200 passing yards twice.

What does that mean for Manning? At Bovada they’re expecting a solid day from the Colts’ pivot after they set his passing yards prop at 300.5 yards with both the Over and the Under at -115.

Back in Week 5 Manning just bare topped 300.5 with 309 yards passing in an Indianapolis 31-9 rout. On the season Manning’s averaging 310.5 yards per game, which is much higher than his career average against Tennessee.

In 15 career games versus the Titans Manning has passed for 3706 yards, which averages out to 247.1 yard per contest. If the Titans defense continues their strong play today and Manning follows his old trends an Under pick on his passing yards prop might be the right bet.

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