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Expect Progression in Miami, but not much

2016 marks a fresh start for the Miami Dolphins — something they’ve seemed to have lots of in recent years — but they may have finally landed the right man to run the team in new head coach Adam Gase. The former Broncos and Bears offensive coordinator has been praised as an offensive wizard and is the youngest head coach in the NFL at 38 years old.

Gase will be tasked with getting Ryan Tannehill over the hump after four average-at-best years as Miami’s starting quarterback. This is likely a do-or-die season for Tannehill as Miami can opt out of his current deal which will almost double to over $20 million in 2017. Gase has plenty of experience working in big-time passing offenses as the Broncos teams he was the coordinator for led the league in passing in 2013 and were fourth in 2014. He did have much different weapons when he was with Denver, but receivers Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker should benefit from the new coaching regime.

Expectations for this team are anything but high and their futures odds reflect that. They might slowly be moving in the right direction though as they continue to improve an offensive line that was the league’s worst in 2013. They may have received a big break at the draft when Ole Miss lineman Laremy Tunsil — the projected top pick on some analysts; boards — fell to them at No. 13. It came with a catch, of course, as a photo emerged of Tunsil getting completetly blasted smoking weed through a crazy gas mask bong, but it was a welcomed break for a team that hasn't had many breaks since Dan Marino retired.

Super Bowl +7500 and AFC Title +3300

Save your money. Miami is towards the bottom of the list in each of these markets and it shouldn’t take much convincing not to waste a cent on either bet. It’s been over 30 years since Miami won the AFC and over 40 since they won a Super Bowl — it’s a wonder they still have any fans! If for some reason you’re considering a gamble on the Fins in either of these spots, consider that 85% of Super Bowl winners over the last 35 years made the playoffs the year before. Regarding their last-place finish in 2015, only three teams have ever finished last in their division then won the Super Bowl the following year. So those trends, combined with a rookie head coach and a roster that’s not up to par with the NFL’s heavy hitters should temper the expectations of even the most unrealistic Dolphins supporter.

AFC East +700

The Dolphins have the longest odds in the division and the AFC East probably isn’t the division to make a risky bet with considering the dominance of the Patriots. Miami finished last in the division in 2015 and we typically see a last-to-first situation in a division once per season as it’s happened 11 times over the last 10 years, but don’t expect to see it in the AFC East this season.

OVER/UNDER Win Total 7

Hitting the OVER and having a .500 season should be considered a success for this team. They’ve finished with more than seven wins in two of Tannehill’s four seasons as the starter and will likely get off to a slow start due to games against four 2015 playoff teams in the season’s first six weeks. They get a bit of a break when they hit New England in Week 2 where the Patriots will be without Tom Brady who’ll be serving his suspension, but they haven’t won in New England since 2008 and have won just four of their last 20 games there.

They do have a handful of winnable games on their schedule vs the Browns, Titans, Chargers, Rams and 49ers, so if they don’t fall completely flat in those games and can split their games with the Jets and Bills and pull off a minor upset or two, they should hit the OVER — lots of ‘ifs’ in there though.

Jarvis Landry to lead NFL in Receiving Yards +6600

Landry took a big leap from his rookie to sophomore season, gaining 399 more receiving yards — good enough for 13th overall. He had the fourth most receptions in the NFL, but didn’t exactly get his money’s worth as he only averaged 10.5 yards per catch — well behind the likes of Julio Jones and Antonio Brown who were at 13+ yards per catch. If Gase truly is the offensive genius he’s been made out to be, expect Landry’s receiving numbers to get a bump for a second straight year.

2016 miami dolphins Futures Odds
MarketOdds
Super Bowl+7500
AFC Championship+3300
AFC East+700
Win Totals 7

Odds as of August 29 at Bovada

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