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Can the Redskins Beat a Winning Team This Year?

The Redskins won the final four games of their 2015 schedule to finish the year on top of the NFC East with a 9-7 record. The caveat here is that none of those nine wins came against a team with a record over .500. This is not a good look for a team that did not tangibly improve in very many categories for the upcoming season.

Josh Norman will bring a definite boost to the secondary but this team's real problem last year was stopping the run. Last season they gave up 122.6 yards per game on the ground and were the worst team in the league at stopping the run on first downs.

There is a lot to prove for some guys in the Redskins’ organization with Jay Gruden in his second year trying to back up what he did in his rookie coaching season and with Kirk Cousins trying to change perceptions that he is not a franchise quarterback with the ability to lead his team to the promised land. Maybe you should spike the ball instead of kneeling next time there Kirky – you like that?

Super Bowl +5000

Washington has not won the Super Bowl since 1992 and will be a longshot to win their fourth in franchise history in 2016 as they have not won a playoff game since 2006 when they beat the Buccaneers in the wildcard round. They are, however, getting better value for a Super Bowl win than they are for a conference championship so if you’re going to waste your money, waste it wisely.

The Redskins were one of the worst rushing teams in the league last year and are touting Matt Jones as their savior in the backfield. This seems unlikely as Jones was one of the least effective and most fumble prone rushers in the NFL in his rookie year. I mention this because no team since the Packers hoisted the Lombardi trophy in 2011 have won the Super Bowl with a running game that earned less than 100 rushing yards per game in the regular season – Washington averaged 97.9 yards on the ground last year and that was when they had Alfred Morris.

NFC East +300

The Redskins are the obvious value play in division futures. They are the defending champs and are the only team in the NFC East offering a reasonable line. The Cowboys and Giants always have the public money behind them which really affects the odds. There should be parity between Washington, Dallas and New York so a bet at +300 on the Redskins to defend their division title is easily justified.

Not one team in the NFC East has repeated as division champion since the Eagles’ four-year NFC East winning streak that spanned from 2001-2004 but in the last four years, 18 of 32 division champs in the NFL have repeated.

Over Under Win total - 7.5

This is a pretty modest total and I’m projecting this team to win 8. They could, however, end up two or three games on either side of that projection depending on if the Giants and Cowboys decide to take their heads out of their respective asses.

Kirk Cousins for MVP +10000

As mentioned, Cousins has much to prove this year and has the receiving weapons around him to do so. The Redskins are going to be a pass-happy team this season with Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder all capable of burning defenses. Crowder is on the verge of a breakout season and with his 79.7 reception rate last year on 74 targets in 2015, he should demand a little more of the football. All this being said Cousins will have to be a monster if he wants to be considered an MVP candidate.

In his first season as a starter, Cousins had the second best adjusted completion percentage in the league and had a 29-11 touchdown to interception ratio. Kirk has shown that he doesn’t exactly shine under pressure so he could fall back down to earth in this, his contract year.

2016 Washington Redskins Futures Odds
MarketOdds
Super Bowl+5000
NFC Championship+2000
NFC East+300
Win Totals 7.5

Odds as of August 23 at Bovada

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