Here’s something terrifying if you’re a Patriots fan: New England is doing “extensive preparation” with wide receiver Julian Edelman at QB this week. He’s the backup if anything should happen to third-stringer-turned-likely starter Jacoby Brissett.
That’s the bad news.
The good news is that head coach Bill Belichick has a way of covering spreads when his team is seen as the underdog by oddsmakers. Here’s an incredible look at how New England has performed as a dog since Belichick took over the team in 2000:
| Record | Win percentage | |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up | 38-32 | 54.3% |
| Against The Spread | 46-23-1 | 65.7% |
| OVER/UNDER | 41-27-2 | 60.3% (OVER) |
The Patriots opened as 2.5-point home underdogs against Houston for the Thursday nighter. And bettors are buying into the New England underdog trend because some sportsbooks have crashed that number all the way down to a pick ’em.
Just in case the Patriots close as a pick or a favorite, here are the numbers for that scenario:
| Record | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up | 12-3 | 80% |
| Against The Spread | 12-3 | 80% |
| OVER/UNDER | 10-5 | 66.7% |
The Patriots are even better as home underdogs since 2000, where they are 12-3 against the spread. That’s an amazing cover rate of 80 percent and when you consider they won most of those games straight up, there was some money to be made here.
| Record | Win Percentage | |
|---|---|---|
| Straight Up | 10-5 | 66.7% |
| Against The Spread | 12-3 | 80% |
| OVER/UNDER | 11-4 | 73.3% |
What’s also worth noting is that these games historically have played OVER. This total opened at a relatively low 41 and it moved down slightly to 40.5 as of Wednesday.
Hey, I’m not saying you blindly bet the Pats and the OVER here. Houston looks like a very good squad early on this year. But these are definitely numbers you want to keep in mind before you click the mouse if you’re simply going with a ‘fade the Patriots’ play.
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