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Betting line favors Bills over Falcons

Atlanta FalconsBuffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills are only 4-7 and yet they're only one game out in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.

Sure, there are six teams ahead of them, but at least they've got some life. After a win and a week off Buffalo now gets another winnable game, Sunday at home against the 2-9 Atlanta Falcons (1 pm ET, Fox).

The Bills had lost three in a row, but with EJ Manuel back in the saddle they bounced the Jets two weeks ago 37-13. So Buffalo is 5-1 ATS at home this season.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has been one of the worst teams in the league to bet on, going 3-8 ATS this year. The Falcons did manage, though, to cover last time out, losing 17-13 to New Orleans as eight-point home dogs.

As of early this week the Bills were favored by 3.5 points over Atlanta at 5Dimes. Some trends for Bills-Falcons bettors to debate include the Bills are 8-3-1 ATS past 12 seasons after a bye week; the UNDER is 11-3 past 14 Buffalo games after a bye week; five of past six meetings played OVER the total; the Falcons are 0-5 SU & ATS past five as road dogs and the Bills are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games.

The Bills sit at 4-7 (6-5 ATS) on the season; in comparison, the Falcons are currently 2-9 (3-8 ATS). Looking to wager on the totals? Buffalo is 7-4 OU, and Atlanta is 6-5 OU.

View Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills Odds and Stats.

Bettors looking to back the visiting Falcons in this one found them as 5-point underdogs earlier in the week at Bovada, while the total was settling in the neighborhood of 46 at shops such as 5Dimes.

The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Bills rated this week at No. 22 and the Falcons sitting at No. 25. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 19-15 result in favor of the Bills this week.

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Last time out for Atlanta, they were a 17-13 loser as they battled the Saints at home. The Falcons covered in the match as a 7.5-point underdog, while 30 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Buffalo's No. 22-ranked offense, averaging 21.45 PPG, against a Falcons defense that ranks No. 28 this week at 28.09 PPG. The Bills aerial game is averaging 197 yards per game, less than the Falcons secondary allows through the air, 251.18 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Falcons feature the league's No. 29-rated road run defense, allowing 137.2 yards per game. Buffalo, meanwhile, ranks No. 2 in rushing offense at home.

A few Falcons at Bills trends to consider:
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta

Next up:
Atlanta at Green Bay, Sunday, December 8th
Buffalo at Tampa Bay, Sunday, December 8th

 

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