Betting line favors Chargers vs Dolphins
San Diego gets another big point spread to cover against another winless team in Week 4, after barely beating KC last Sunday.
The Chargers' history of winning as a big favorite is spotty as they seldom cover big spreads and often lose straight up (they are 6-4 SU in the past 10 as double-digit chalk).
The teams have met eight times since 1995 and the Dolphins have won seven times (6-2 ATS) but the real money for bettors has been the total - all 8 meetings have gone UNDER the total.
Miami is hungry to win after starting the season 0-3.
Bettors looking to side with the Chargers in this one will find them as 9-point favorites , while the total sits at 46.5. [ Last days for double your money up to $250 for FREE at Bovada ]
Power Rankings / Prediction:
According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 15-rated Chargers and the No. 20-rated Dolphins in this matchup. Predictive formulas point to a 21-14 win for the Chargers on Sunday.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up San Diego's No. 15-ranked offense (21.7 PPG) against a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 26 at 26 PPG. The Chargers passing attack has averaged 320 yards per game, more than the Dolphins give up through the air (311 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Dolphins feature the league's No. 4-rated road run defense, allowing 70 yards per game. San Diego, meanwhile, ranks No. 21 in rushing offense at home.
Last time out for Miami, they were a 17-16 loser as they battled the Browns on the road. The Dolphins failed to cover in the match as a 2-point favorite, while 33 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. The Dolphins suffered a Week 3 loss against Cleveland in their last game, falling 17-16 at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
The Chargers were a 20-17 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Chiefs. They failed to cover the 14–point spread as favorites, while the total score (37) made winners of UNDER bettors. Ryan Mathews scored twice in San Diego's most recent game, earning a 20-17 win over Kansas City at Qualcomm Stadium.
Miami Dolphins Trends:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 2-8
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 3-7
San Diego Chargers Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few Dolphins at Chargers trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Miami
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Miami at NY Jets, Monday, October 17
San Diego at Denver, Sunday, October 9