Broncos focus of NFL Week 5 Prop Bets
The team NFL prop bettors should be paying attention to this weekend is the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos sport a totally one-dimensional offense right now that relies completely on the pass. Just look at the box score from their game against the Titans last week in which they threw the ball 50 times and ran it only 20 times.
This wasn't a one-time thing, either, because a week earlier against the Colts and their awful run defense Kyle Orton attempted 57 passes while the Broncos ran the ball only 18 times.
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One reason the Broncos are avoiding the run is the lack of a No. 1 back due to the injury to Knowshon Moreno. Recent acquisition Laurence Maroney isn't exactly filling in admirably after rushing for a lame five yards on 11 carries last week.
With Moreno expected to be sidelined again this week the oddsmakers at Bodog have listed the Denver rushing yards prop as 'Denver running backs' instead of singling out one back. As expected the over/under total for the prop was set low at 75.5 yards. If it were any team other than Denver the OVER would be a no-brainer.
However, the Broncos have only eclipsed 75.5 yards rushing once this season, and they didn't exactly soar over it either when they put up 89 yards against Jacksonville in Week 1. After the Broncos rushed for an embarrassing 19 yards last week the UNDER looks like a pretty safe play against Baltimore's solid defense.
With Denver favoring the pass so heavily early on this season there is also an interesting prop to consider for Kyle Orton. At Bodog they have a season-long passing yards prop for Orton with the total set at 4,200. Through four games Orton has averaged 354.8 yards per game this season. Stretch that out over 16 games and you get 5,676 yards.
There's almost no way Orton could keep up his current pace, but even if his total were reduced by 25 percent the rest of the way he'd still soar over 4,200 yards. The UNDER is of course the favorite at -105, but the OVER is still worth at least a few bucks at -125. I'd take the OVER and watch Orton top it by Week 14.
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Updating a prop we highlighted last week there are four winless teams still alive in Bodog's “which team will be the last remaining winless team in the 2010 NFL season” prop. Those four teams still looking for a victory are Buffalo, Carolina, Detroit, and San Francisco.
Oddly enough, three of them are the favorite in their games this week. The lone underdog in Week 15 is Buffalo as a 1-point 'dog versus the Jaguars.
The favorites may not be doing so well so far this season, but if they finally live up to their grading this week the Bills would pay out.
Which team will be the last remaining winless team in the 2010 NFL season?
San Francisco +600