The San Diego Chargers host the Denver Broncos in a key AFC West divisional showdown this Monday night at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Diego has dominated this rivalry over the last six years with a 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS record over the Broncos.
Denver is just 5-12 SU and 7-10 ATS in its last 17 road games, including an 0-2 SU and ATS record this season. San Diego is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home.
The Broncos have also struggled as an underdog, going 1-5 ATS past 6 as well as struggling in the month of October (1-8 ATS past 9). The Chargers, meanwhile, played OVER is 12-1 past 13 games before a bye week.
[ Bet on Monday Night Football with the spread that has held steady at -1 for the Chargers (at 5Dimes) and see the UNDER 47.5 bet at .
Bettors looking to side with the Chargers in this one found them as 3-point favorites earlier in the week at Sportsbook.ag, while the total was sitting at 50 (and had been down to 47.5 at $JUSTBET-LLINK$ as of Monday.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
This game matches up the No. 12 (Chargers) and the No. 17 (Broncos) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at OddsShark. A 30-28 result in favor of the Chargers is predicted by handicapping models.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits San Diego's No. 13-ranked offense, averaging 24.8 PPG, against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 19 this week at 22.8 PPG. The Chargers aerial game is averaging 231.4 yards per game, more than the Broncos secondary allows through the air, 215 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the Broncos own the league's No. 29-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 159 yards per game when on the road. San Diego, on the other hand, rates No. 11 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Denver lost its last outing, a 31-21 result against the Patriots on October 7. The Broncos failed to cover in that game as a 6-point underdog, while the 52 combined points took the game OVER the total. Peyton Manning beat the Patriots secondary for 3 TDs last time out, but the Broncos lost to New England 31-21 at Gillette Stadium.
In their last action, San Diego was a 31-24 loser on the road against the Saints. They failed to cover the 3.5-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (55) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Philip Rivers led the way last time out for the Chargers, connecting for 354 passing yards, but failing to earn the victory in a 31-24 loss to the Chargers at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Denver Broncos Trends:
When playing in October are 2-8
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 4-6
San Diego Chargers Trends:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 7-3
A few Broncos at Chargers trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Diego's last 14 games at home
San Diego is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home
San Diego is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Denver home to New Orleans, Sunday, October 28
San Diego at Cleveland, Sunday, October 28