Patriots vs Broncos Betting Preview
The Denver Broncos will be looking for an upset over a team they have fared well against in the past when they visit the New England Patriots this Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
Denver is 17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games against New England.
With that said, New England is 3-1 SU and ATS over the last four meetings between these two teams. The Patriots almost never lose at home in the month of October, running up an 18-1 SU mark since 2002.
The Pats are also 8-1 ATS in 9 recent games against teams from the AFC West.
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The Broncos were listed as 7.5-point underdogs at sportsbooks such as TopBet, with the total listed at 51.5. Check the latest line updates (and pocket a chance at a poker bonus when you visit Bovada before kickoff).
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Patriots - Broncos odds would favor the Patriots if the lines were set according to power ranks. New England is rated No. 1 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Broncos sit at No. 6. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 37-34 win for the Patriots.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits New England's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 33.5 PPG, against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 10 this week at 20.8 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 294.2 yards per game, more than the Broncos secondary allows through the air, 220.5 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Broncos feature the league's No. 5-rated road run defense, allowing 67 yards per game. New England, meanwhile, ranks No. 18 in rushing offense at home.
Denver won its last outing, a 37-6 result against the Raiders on September 30. The Broncos covered in that game as a 6.5-point favorite, while the 43 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Peyton Manning dusted the Raiders secondary for 3 TDs last time out as the Broncos defeated Oakland 37-6 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
Last time out for New England, they were a 52-28 winner as they battled the Bills on the road. The Patriots covered in the match as a 3.5-point favorite, while 80 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors. Last time out, Tom Brady threw for 3 scores and 340 yards in leading his team past Buffalo at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Denver Broncos Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 5-5
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 7-3
A few Broncos at Patriots trends to consider:
Denver is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Denver is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
New England is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New England's last 22 games at home
Denver at San Diego, Monday, October 15
New England at Seattle, Sunday, October 14