Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos head to New England as rare favorites over the host Patriots in the Sunday night game.
The Broncos began the week as 2.5-point favorites over New England. Denver improved to 9-1 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread with a win over the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs.
This will be the first time the Patriots have been home underdogs since 2005. New England is coming off a frustrating loss at the Carolina Panthers on Monday night, when an official waved off a pass- interference flag in the end zone that would have given the Patriots one more play at the Carolina 1-yard line.
Manning and Patriots QB Tom Brady last met in 2010, with the Patriots beating Manning’s Indianapolis Colts, 31-28. The Broncos are 1-4 SU & ATS in their past five vs Patriots, while New England is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at home in 2013.
The Patriots sport a record of 7-3 and 5-5 ATS heading into this matchup, while the Broncos sit at 9-1 and 6-4 ATS on the season. The over under records are 4-6 for the Patriots and 8-2 for the Broncos.
View Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Odds and Stats.
The Patriots were listed as 2.5-point underdogs at Sportsbook and other online sportsbooks, with the total listed at one point at 55.5. Watch Sportsbook for the line moves and the likely best underdog line for Sunday night.
The game pits the Patriots, currently No. 7 in our OddsShark NFL Power Rankings, against the Broncos, who rate No. 1 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 39-31 victory for the Broncos.
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The Broncos were a 27-17 Sportsbook in their most recent outing at home against the Chiefs. They covered the 7.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (44) made Sportsbooks of UNDER bettors. The Patriots suffered a Week 11 loss against Carolina in their last game, falling 24-20 at Bank of America Stadium.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up New England's No. 8-ranked offense (25.4 PPG) against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 23 at 25.5 PPG. The Patriots passing attack has averaged 237.1 yards per game, less than the Broncos give up through the air (279.1 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Broncos own the league's No. 3-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 81.75 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rates No. 8 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
A few Broncos at Patriots trends to consider:
Denver is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Denver is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 11 games
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
New England is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
Next up:
Denver at Kansas City, Sunday, December 1st
New England at Houston, Sunday, December 1st
