The pain continues in Indianapolis where the 0-3 Colts hit the road to face a medicore Tampa Bay team and still manage to open as double-digit underdogs in the Week 4 Monday Nighter.
Indy is 3-0 ATS in three games against the Buccaneers since 1997 and they try find some momentum with Peyton Manning likely shelved for the season. The OVER is 10-2 in their past 12 road games. For what it's worth, the Bucs have lost 5 straight October home games ATS.
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In years past, this is a situation where you would always back the Colts. Since 2004, the Colts have dominated Monday Night Football betting odds, going 7-1 ATS in their past 8. But these are not your regular Colts with Curtis Painter under center and Peyton Manning watching from the sidelines.
The Buccaneers are listed as 10-point favorites at sportsbooks, with the total listed at 42. [ Best Colts line is +10.5 at 5Dimes ]
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The game pits the Buccaneers, currently No. 27 in our OddsShark NFL Power Rankings, against the Colts, who rate No. 30 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 21-8 victory for the Buccaneers.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Tampa Bay's No. 17-ranked offense (20 PPG) against a Colts defense that ranks No. 29 at 28 PPG. The Buccaneers passing attack has averaged 223 yards per game, less than the Colts give up through the air (251.7 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Colts own the league's No. 30-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 167 yards per game when on the road. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, rates No. 25 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
The Colts were a 23-20 loser in their most recent outing at home against the Steelers. They covered the 11–point spread as underdogs, while the total score (43) made winners of OVER bettors. The Colts suffered a Week 3 loss against Pittsburgh in their last game, falling 23-20 at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Last time out for Tampa Bay, they were a 16-13 winner as they battled the Falcons at home. The Buccaneers covered in the match as a 1-point favorite, while 29 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors. The Buccaneers grabbed a Week 3 victory over the Falcons in their last game, winning 16-13 at Raymond James Stadium.
Indianapolis Colts Trends:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 3-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Trends:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on grass are 7-3
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3
A few Colts at Buccaneers trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Indianapolis is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home
Tampa Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis home to Kansas City, Sunday, October 9
Tampa Bay at San Francisco, Sunday, October 9