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Bye Week Trends Impact Week 7 Odds

Like it or not, bye weeks can have a significant impact on your NFL handicapping, whether a team is heading into an off week or coming out of one.

 

A team coasting into a bye week at 6-0 may rest a banged-up player, knowing that a loss doesn’t wreck their season. A team hitting the bye at 1-5 may throw everything but the kitchen sink at that game to ensure hey have a shot at the playoffs coming out of the bye.

 

In Week 7, there are six teams coming off byes (Denver, Tennessee, Kansas City, Arizona, San Diego, Seattle) and six teams heading into byes (Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Oakland, NY Jets, Tampa Bay). Not all have apparent or meaningful trends, but others require your attention before placing your Week 7 NFL bets or making your NFL Bankroll contest picks (free contest, $1,000 available in prizes each month).

 

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In Oakland, Jason Campbell is down and out and Carson Palmer is in. This is a bold move and a desperate one for the Raiders, who have only a week to get a rusty Palmer into shape and to learn the playbook. They head into a bye and would hate to lose to the Chiefs at home before they get there.

 

KC has dominated here over the years (15-4 ATS in 19 visits) but the Raiders have been a solid bet before a bye in the past decade, going 8-3 ATS. [ Best dog line, check at Bovada ]

 

In New York, the Jets brace for a bye week by facing a tough Chargers team that is coming off their bye. San Diego is just 1-5 ATS in 6 recent games vs the Jets and the Jets are 5-1 ATS in 6 seasons before their bye. Also interesting is the 8-1 run favoring the OVER in pre-bye-week games for the Jets.

 

And in Miami, the 0-5 Dolphins have a short week to prepare for a rested Denver team coming off a bye. The Broncos have had two weeks to prepare Tim Tebow for starter duty and they have used the bye week wisely over the years (8-2 ATS past 10 years after a bye). However, the Dolphins historically dominate the Broncos (6-0 ATS past 6 and 8-1 ATS since 1985 head to head).

 

Check out all the latest Week 7 NFL odds and trends and check out the biggest sportsbook bonus remaining – 50% at TopBet.

 

Houston +3 at Tennessee -3 Total 44.5 (get live NFL odds here and get the best favorite lines at 5Dimes)

 

Past 5 meetings here all played OVER
Houston is 5-1 favoring the UNDER this season
Tennessee comes off a bye week
Houston is just 1-8 SU in its last nine road games
Titans 7-3 ATS past 10 vs Houston

Chicago -1 at Tampa Bay +1 Total 44

 

Game being played at London’s Wembley Stadium
Bears 2-7 ATS in the past nine seasons before a bye week

San Diego -1 at NY Jets +1 Total 44

 

OVER is 8-1 past 9 pre-bye week games
Jets 5-1 ATS in the past 6 seasons in games before a bye
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs Jets
Chargers come off a bye week

Denver +1 at Miami -1 Total 42.5

 

Denver is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 after a bye
Miami 6-0 ATS since 2002 and 8-1 ATS since 1985 vs Broncos

Atlanta +3.5 at Detroit -3.5 Total 47

 

Atlanta is 8-2 ATS past 10 years before their bye week
Detroit is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Falcons 7-3 ATS past 10 vs Lions

Seattle +3 at Cleveland -3 Total 41

 

Seahawks 2-10 ATS past 12 years following a bye
Browns just 3-8 ATS past 11 games as favorite
Browns have lost 7 of past 11 games as favorite

Washington +2.5 at Carolina -2.5 Total 43.5

 

Redskins 4-0 ATS past 4 vs Carolina
Panthers 4-0 ATS past 4 home games
Past 8 times Carolina was favored, game went UNDER total

Kansas City +4 at Oakland -4 Total 41.5

 

Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last eight trips to Oakland
KC 15-4 ATS past 19 trips to Oakland dating to 1983
Oakland is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 seasons before a bye

Pittsburgh -4 at Arizona +4 Total 42

 

UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games past 6 Cards game pre-bye
Steelers 17-3 SU past 20 games as favorite
Game is rematch of Super Bowl XLV won by Steelers

Green Bay -9 at Minnesota +9 Total 47

 

Packers 6-2 ATS past eight trips to Minnesota
OVER 6-2 past eight seasons before a bye week for Packers
Vikings 1-12 SU in its past 13 games as an underdog

St Louis +13 at Dallas -13 Total 43.5

 

Rams 0-5 SU and ATS so far in 2011
Rams come off a bye week
UNDER is 7-1-1 past 9 Ram games as dog of 9+ points
Last time Dallas lost SU as a fave of 9+ points was vs Rams (2008)

Indianapolis +14 at New Orleans -14 Total 48.5

 

OVER is 8-1 in the past nine Colt road games in October
Rematch of Super Bowl XLIV won by Saints
Saints just 3-8 ATS past 11 at home as fave of 9+ points

Monday Night Football betting trends

 

Baltimore -8.5 at Jacksonville +8.5 Total 39.5

 

Jaguars just 2-7 ATS since 1999 on Monday Night Football
Ravens 7-1 SU past 8 vs the Jaguars
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS on Mondays
Ravens 8-2 ATS the past 10 times as favorite