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Capping Strength Of Schedule For NFL Season Win Totals

NFL season win totals are trickling out and so the NFL is starting to get fun. 

The lines opened first at South Point in Las Vegas and Bovada came out with their odds this week. Below is a comparison between the Las Vegas opening line versus the current number at Bovada. Our numbers nerds also crunched the numbers to give a look at strength of schedule based on last year's opponents' win record. 

Take a look at the chart below for your handicapping info. A few quick notes: 

  • Patriots are a full game higher since the original number
  • Raiders, Panthers, Ravens, Eagles, Saints, Bucs, Cards, Jags, Bears are all at least 1/2 game in difference from the original line.
  • Chiefs have the toughest schedule based on last year. Colts have the easiest. 
2017 NFL Season Win Totals
TeamSouth Point Opening OddsBovada OddsStrength of Sked (2016 opp. win %) 
New England Patriots11.5 (-120 OVER)12.5 (-125 O)9th - 52.7% (135-121)
Pittsburgh Steelers10.5 (-120 OVER)10.527th - 44.9% (115-139-2)
Seattle Seahawks 10.510.528th - 44.9% (115-138-3)
Atlanta Falcons10 (-120 UNDER)9.5 (-125 O)13th - 52% (133-122-1)
Green Bay Packers10 (-120 UNDER)10 (-130 O)17th - 47.7% (122-132-2)
Dallas Cowboys9.5 (-120 OVER)9.5 (-150 U)12th - 52.3% (134-118-4)
Oakland Raiders9.5 (-120 OVER)10 (-125 O)4th - 56.3% (144-111-1)
Baltimore Ravens9.5 (-125 OVER)9 (-125 U)24th - 45.7% (117-137-2)
Tennessee Titans9.58.530th - 43.4% (111-142-3)
Kansas City Chiefs9 (-120 OVER)9 (-125 U)1st - 57.4% (147-108-1)
Carolina Panthers9 (-120 OVER)8.5 (-140 O)16th - 50.4% (129-127)
New York Giants9 (-120 UNDER)9 (-125 U)10th - 52.7% (135-117-4)
Indianapolis Colts 9 (-115 UNDER)9 (-130 U)32nd - 41.8% (107-146-3)
Cincinnati Bengals8.5 (-120 OVER)8.5 (-130 U)29th - 44.9% (115-141)
Denver Broncos8.5 (-120 OVER)8.5 (-125 U)2nd- 57.4% (147-107-2)
Houston Texans8.5 (-120 OVER)8.5 (-130 O)26th - 44.9% (115-138-3)
Philadelphia Eagles8.58 (-125 O)11th - 52.3% (134-118-4)
MInnesota Vikings8.58.5 (-130 U)25th 44.9% (115-139-2)
New Orleans Saints8.5 (-120 UNDER)8 (-125 O)15th - 50.8% (130-125-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers88.5 (-125 U)14th - 51.6% (132-123-1)
Detroit Lions88 (-130 U)20th - 46.5% (119-135-2)
Washington Redskins7.5 (-120 OVER)7.5 (-125 O)7th - 53.9% (138-116-2)
Arizona Cardinals7.5 (-125 OVER)8 (-125 U)23rd - 46.1% (118-135-3)
Los Angeles Chargers7.57.53rd -  56.6% (145-110-1)
Miami Dolphins7.57.5 (-130 O)6th -54.7% (140-116)
Buffalo Bills66 (-130 O)5th - 55.9% (143-112-1)
Jacksonville Jaguars5.56 (-125 O)31st - 43.4% (111-142-3)
New York Jets5.5 (-120 OVER)58th - 53.5% - (137-119)
Los Angeles Rams5.5 (-135 OVER)5.5 (-130 U)19th- 47.3% (121-130-5)
Chicago Bears55.5 (-140 U)18th - 47.7% (122-133-1)
San Francisco 49ers4.54.5 (-140 O)22nd - 46.5% (119-132-5)
Cleveland Browns4.5 (-125)4.5 (-125 U)21st - 46.5% (119-135-2)

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