Chargers visit Dolphins in Week 11 battle
|San Diego Chargers||Miami Dolphins|
At 4-5 both the San Diego Chargers and Miami Dolphins are on the edge of the AFC playoff picture.
In a rematch, of sorts, of one of the great playoff games in NFL history, the Chargers and Dolphins hook up once again in Miami Sunday afternoon (4:05 pm ET, CBS).
San Diego has lost two games in a row, after falling to Denver Sunday 28-20. Still, the Bolts are 5-3-1 ATS on the season.
Miami, meanwhile, lost at Tampa Bay Monday night 22-19. So the Fins have lost five of their last six games both SU and ATS.
Both teams trail the 5-4 Jets by a game in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot.
As of early this week the Chargers were listed as one-point road favorites over the Dolphins. Of note for totals bettors, all 10 meetings since 1995 have played UNDER the total.
The Chargers have played OVER (11-2-1) in their past 14 games as road underdogs. They are also 2-7 ATS past nine road games vs AFC East teams.
The Dolphins currently sport a record of 4-5, and have posted a corresponding betting slate of 4-5 ATS. The Chargers are 4-5 and 5-3-1 ATS. Betting totals have seen the Dolphins post a 6-3 over under record this season, while the Chargers have gone 4-5 against the number.
Sportsbooks, including Sportsbook.ag, had set the Dolphins as -1.5-point favorites on the opening line for this contest. The total was hovering around 45.5 earlier in the week (check for the current over-under lines).
The Dolphins sit at No. 24 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Chargers are at No. 13 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Chargers will win this game 22-19.
In their last action, San Diego was a 28-20 loser at home against the Broncos. They failed to cover the 7-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (48) was profitable news for UNDER bettors. Rishard Matthews hauled in 11 passes for 120 yards against the Tampa Bay defense in the team's last game, but the result was a 22-19 loss against the Buccaneers on Monday.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Miami's No. 20-ranked offense (21.44 PPG) against a Chargers defense that ranks No. 13 at 22.44 PPG. The Dolphins passing attack has averaged 216.89 yards per game, less than the Chargers give up through the air (279.56 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Chargers feature the league's No. 24-rated road run defense, allowing 132.2 yards per game. Miami, meanwhile, ranks No. 24 in rushing offense at home.
A few Chargers at Dolphins trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of San Diego's last 23 games on the road
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
San Diego is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Miami
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Diego at Kansas City, Sunday, November 24th
Miami at Carolina, Sunday, November 24th