There are five winless teams heading into Week 4 of the NFL season, but only four will remain that way as the winless Vikings face the winless Chiefs.
Bettors quickly swung early behind the Vikes, turning a -3 open to a +1 number by midday Monday (watch line moves here at Odds Shark). The Vikings blew a lead for the third straight week in allowing the Lions to beat them at home, while the Chiefs were easily covering last week's biggest point spread (15 points) in a 20-17 loss at San Diego.
Of note, Minnesota has lost 11 of 13 road games overall, which could make the Chiefs interesting bets on the NFL moneyline (+115 at TopBet).
The Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites at sportsbooks but the line quickly swung around in favor of the Vikings at shops such as . Meanwhile, the total was listed at 39.5.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The OddsShark Power Rankings have the Chiefs at No. 24 and the Vikings at No. 22 heading into this contest. Handicapping models project a 18-5 result in favor of the Vikings.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Kansas City's No. 32-ranked offense, averaging 9 PPG, against a Vikings defense that ranks No. 22 this week at 24.7 PPG. The Chiefs aerial game is averaging 130.7 yards per game, less than the Vikings secondary allows through the air, 299.3 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Vikings feature the league's No. 5-rated road run defense, allowing 77 yards per game. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranks No. 17 in rushing offense at home.
Minnesota was a 26-23 loser in its last match at home against the Lions. They earned a push of the 3–point spread as underdogs, while the total score of 49 sent OVER bettors to the payout window. In their last game, the Vikings were Week 3 losers coming out on the wrong end of 26-23 score against Detroit.
Kansas City lost its last outing, a 20-17 result against the Chargers on September 25. The Chiefs covered in that game as a 14-point underdog, while the 37 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Matt Cassel passed for 2 touchdowns in his team's last game, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Chargers, who won 20-17 on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings Trends:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 5-5
Kansas City Chiefs Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few Vikings at Chiefs trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games
Minnesota home to Arizona, Sunday, October 9
Kansas City at Indianapolis, Sunday, October 9