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Manning Returns: Colts Broncos Odds

Peyton Manning’s return to Indianapolis highlights the Week 7 slate, but Denver bettors won't like the way this one turns out if history repeats itself.

Manning and the Denver Broncos opened as 7.5-point favorites, but the line had dropped to -6 early in the week. They are winless SU and ATS (0-5) in their past five against the Colts, who have been terrific as home underdogs, winning outright the past seven times in this situation.

The Colts have covered the spread in their last seven games as home underdogs. But despite those trends, 85 percent of the betting action at Bovada was on the Broncos as of friday afternoon.

This will be Manning’s first trip back to Indianapolis, after spending all but the last two seasons as a member of the Colts. He’s off to remarkable start to his second season in Denver, having thrown 22 touchdowns with only two interceptions. They lead the league in passing yards and rushing defense.

The Colts (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) are on a short week, after suffering a disappointing loss at the San Diego Chargers on Monday night. Indianapolis’ defense has excelled against the pass, with defensive end Robert Mathis among the league’s top pass rushers. But the Colts have struggled to stop the run and rank 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed.

Indianapolis has covered 12 of its last 20 games as the underdog and they are 11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games at home.

The Broncos will try to spoil to the party on Sunday; they are 3-3 ATS against the number this season, while the Colts are 3-3 ATS. Denver is 6-0 on the totals; Indianapolis is 2-4.

View Denver Broncos vs Indianapolis Colts Odds and Stats.

Sportsbooks, including Bovada, had set the Colts as 7.5-point underdogs on the opening line for this contest. The total was hovering around 55.5 earlier in the week at 5Dimes.

The OddsShark Power Rankings have the Colts at No. 7 and the Broncos at No. 2 heading into this contest. Handicapping models project a 42-33 result in favor of the Broncos.

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In their last action, Denver was a 35-19 winner at home against the Jaguars. They failed to cover the 26.5-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (54) was profitable news for OVER bettors. In their last game, the Colts were Week 6 losers coming out on the wrong end of 19-9 score against San Diego.

How They Match Up:
The game also pits Indianapolis's No. 11-ranked offense, averaging 24.67 PPG, against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 24 this week at 26.33 PPG. The Colts aerial game is averaging 215.83 yards per game, less than the Broncos secondary allows through the air, 337.67 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Broncos own the league's No. 1-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 37.5 yards per game when on the road. Indianapolis, on the other hand, rates No. 11 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

A few Broncos at Colts trends to consider:
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Next up:
Denver at Washington, Sunday, October 27th
Indianapolis at Houston, Sunday, November 3rd