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Colts, Patriots opening odds surprises

It’s been nearly 10 years since the Indianapolis Colts were a 9-point underdog in a meaningful game.

It was Nov. 10, 2002 and the visiting Colts were 9.5-point underdogs against the powerful Eagles. It didn’t matter in the end as they rolled 35-13, but Indy backers find themselves in a similar betting predicament in Week 1 of the NFL season.

They were going to be road dogs in Houston anyway, as the number opened at -2 in favour of the Texans. But then Peyton Manning’s injury rehab crawled at a snail’s pace and the betting hit the Houston side at a feverish pace.

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The Colts lost 34-24 here last season but are 16-2 SU lifetime against their AFC South foes, who are looking towards a playoff berth in 2011.

While the Texans are the biggest favorite, the biggest road favorite is New England, which is surprisingly 8-point chalk in Miami. It’s a place they have struggled at times but also a place where they have racked up tons of points.

It’s also the highest total of the week to date, with the number sitting at 45.5 so far at Bovada. New England has scored more than 40 points in three of their past four visits and the Dolphins have been a betting nightmare in season openers, losing seven in a row ATS.

The lowest total of the week is the Cleveland vs Cincinnati game, where the total sits at 35.5. This is another game when the ATS trends lead bettors in opposite directions. The Bengals are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 games as a dog (they are 3-point pups in Week 1), while the Browns are 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 season openers.

For bettors who like the home underdog theory of betting Week 1 games, there are four games that meet the criteria. The Dolphins, Bears, Rams and Redskins all get points at home.

Thursday, September 08

NO +4 @ GB -4 (8:30 PM NBC)

Total 47 – Matchup Stats | 100% Signup Bonus at Bovada

Sunday, September 11

-2.5 ATL @ +2.5 CHI (1:00 PM FOX)

Total 41 – Matchup Stats | Bet home underdog at BetOnline

IND +9 @ HOU -9 (1:00 PM CBS)

Total 43 – Matchup Stats | Free NFL contest

BUF +7 @ KC -7 (1:00 PM CBS)

Total 39.5 – Matchup Stats | Pick on this game

TEN +3 @ JAC -3 (1:00 PM CBS)

Total 38.5 – Matchup Stats | Best teaser + parlay odds; see 5Dimes

CIN +7 @ CLE -7 (1:00 PM CBS)

Total 35.5 – Matchup Stats | Lowest total of week, best OVER line at 5Dimes

PHI -4.5 @ STL +4.5 (1:00 PM FOX)

Total 44 - Matchup Stats | Double your deposit up to $250 at Bovada

PIT +1 @ BAL -1 (1:00 PM CBS)

Total 36 – Matchup Stats | Top trend, Steelers 5-1-1 ATS past 7 vs Ravens

DET PK @ TB PK (1:00 PM FOX)

Total 41 – Matchup Stats | Fantasy football style bets – see them at Bovada

MIN +9 @ SD -9 (4:15 PM FOX)

Total 41.5 – Matchup Stats | Vikes biggest dog of week (best dog lines at Bovada)

NYG -3 @ WAS +3 (4:15 PM FOX)

Total 37.5 – Matchup Stats | Skins one of just 4 home dogs in Week 1

CAR +8 @ ARI -8 (4:15 PM FOX)

Total 38.5 – Matchup Stats | NFL debut of Cam Newton, Cats 7-1 SU past 8 vs Cards

SEA +5 @ SF -5 (4:15 PM FOX)

Total 38 – Matchup Stats | See consensus data on this NFC West game

DAL +4 @ NYJ -4 (8:20 PM NBC)

Total 40.5 – Matchup Stats | Sunday night betting specials at BetOnline

Monday, September 12

NE -8 @ MIA +8 (7:00 PM ESPN)

Total 45.5 – Matchup Stats | Biggest home dog of week, visit Bovada

OAK +3 @ DEN -3 (10:15 PM ESPN)

Total 40 – Matchup Stats | Monday Night free $10 bet special – see TopBet

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