If you enjoy defensive battles and road underdogs, history tells us you won’t enjoy conference championship weekend.
Because if recent trends hold true and the number-crunching OddsShark.com NFL prediction computer is correct, the Patriots and 49ers will win and the games will go over the total.
That is the NFL betting trend in the past five playoff seasons with home teams going 8-2 SU and 10 of 12 games playing over the total.
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The computer likes the 49ers to continue that conference title game trend of home victories. It predicts a 31-21 final over the New York Giants, who have proven to be a very nasty dog with some giant-killing victories over Dallas, Atlanta and Green Bay.
It also likes the home team in the AFC championship game as well, predicting a 34-30 win for the New England Patriots over the Baltimore Ravens.
If the computer is right about the NFC championship game odds (and the AFC game too) both will go OVER the total, which would also follow recent trends for over-under betting.
Patriots vs Ravens Odds– Matchup Report and Preview
It’s a battle of the NFL’s third-rated offense directed by Tom Brady and the NFL’s third-rated defense directed by Ray Lewis. New England has dominated the Ravens over the years with the lone Baltimore victory taking place here on Wild Card weekend two years ago.
So the Ravens respect the Pats and their home-field advantage, but they are not afraid of it.
And bettors should be wary of this stat – New England’s defense gave up more first downs than any other team in the league. If the Ravens can pound the ball with Ray Lewis, it could keep Brady off the field and push this game under the total, which opened at 50.5 at shops such as TopBet.
49ers vs Giants Odds – Matchup Report and Preview
The Giants have been playing very well but face an unheralded 49ers squad that has been money in the bank at home (going 10-0-1 ATS in 11 games dating back to last season). They upset the Saints last week and have the ground game to do the same to the visiting Giants, who come in as slight road underdogs.
New York ranked in the bottom third of the league in defense, allowing 25 PPG. The 49ers ranked second, just behind the Steelers at 14.3 PPG.
With a total of 42, those trends combine for another threat to OVER bettors as this one could plunge under the number. Watch the weather report for any rain or wind in Sunday’s forecast which could send bettors under.