Cowboys, Packers Head ATS Trends
NFL fans who enjoy trend betting love it when they find a solid angle and love it even more when they find two or more angles that support the same trend.
Imagine how excited they will be in the Dallas vs Seattle game, the Green Bay vs San Diego game and New Orleans vs Tampa Bay game when a half dozen trends all point to an against-the-spread victory for one team.
Dallas is primed for a rebound game after losing badly in Philadelphia, even without all these Week 9 NFL trends pointing to them covering against the woeful Seahawks. In Seattle, they face a team that is 0-5 ATS vs the Cowboys since 2004 and a team that was pulverized at home last week. And as a big dog, Seattle hasn’t packed much bite, going 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games as a pup of 9+ points.
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Seattle has also struggled against the NFC East generally (1-6 SU, 1-5-1 ATS past 7). Dallas meanwhile has been a cover machine at home in the month of November, rolling to an 8-1 ATS run in recent years. They have also taken care of bettors who back them as a big favorite, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS the past 8 times they were a fave of 9 + points.
Trendy Pick: Dallas -12.5 | Bet it
We bet heavily against the Saints last week after their 62-7 performance a week earlier. We didn’t pick them to lose outright in St. Louis, but we bet them against the spread. In Week 9, there are all kinds of trendy reasons to bet against the Saints at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
For starters, the Saints are 1-7 ATS in their past 8 at home vs the Buccaneers. So despite their lame Week 8 loss and a potential to bounce back with vigor here, you have to pay attention to road trends in divisional matchups.
Second, the Bucs have been tough as underdogs, going 7-3 ATS past 10 in that situation. They are also coming off a bye week, so they are rested and got to watch tape of the Rams pounding the ball down their throats. Tampa has been tough post-bye, going 7-2 ATS past 9 seasons after their week off. Tampa has also been a very tough team to bet against on the road, where they are a stellar 10-2 ATS in their past 12, including nine SU victories!
Totals bettors should be aware that these teams have played 6 straight unders.
Trendy Pick: Tampa Bay +9
After watching Philip Rivers fumble away the Monday Night game to Kansas City, bettors would have to think the Chargers would rebound with a determined victory in Week 9. The only flaw in that handicapping theory is when the opponent is the Green Bay Packers.
Hence the Chargers opening as rare 5.5-point home underdogs as they play on a short week against an undefeated team coming off its bye week. The rest situation alone trends toward a Packers cover here, but there is more. Much more.
The Packers have not lost to the Chargers since 1985 and they are 5-0 ATS in those games. Green Bay has also won 7 in a row SU on the road and 15 of their past 16 SU as a favorite (they are also a money-making 12-4 ATS as chalk).
Need more evidence? The Packers are 8-0 SU and ATS recently against AFC West teams and they are 4-0-1 ATS the past 5 seasons following their BYE week. The trends pointing to San Diego relate to their role as an underdog, where they are 9-3-1 ATS past 13 games in that role. Also of note for totals bettors, the past seven Charger home games all played UNDER the number.
Trendy Pick: Packers -5.5
Another game that appears headed for an easy cover based on situations and trends and the NFL odds is the Steelers over the Ravens. Steelers have been playing better, are at home and play with revenge against a division foe that clobbered them in Week 1. Almost every trend (home record, favorite record, etc) favors the Steelers to cover the spread.
More quick Week 9 NFL trends:
Bears at Eagles (Monday Night Football Trends) – Play UNDER? Bears UNDER is 5-2 past 7 seasons after a BYE week; Bears UNDER is 9-2 past 11 November road games; Bears UNDER is 8-2 past 10 road games; Bears UNDER is 15-5 past 20 games as underdog