Chargers vs Broncos Betting Outlook
The San Diego Chargers will be underdogs against the Denver Broncos in NFL Divisional Round action on Sunday, but Philip Rivers and company have already picked up one SU and ATS victory over Peyton Manning and the AFC's top seed this year.
San Diego fell 28-20 at home to Denver as a 7-point underdog on November 10, but they regrouped from that loss to beat the Broncos 27-20 in Denver as a 10-point underdog on the NFL odds on December 12. Both of those games turned out to be OVERs.
The Chargers topped the Cincinnati Bengals 27-10 on the road on Wild Card Weekend to get their shot at the Broncos, with Rivers throwing for just 128 yards with one touchdown in that contest. Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead each ran for scores.
Despite the 10-point spread in early betting at Bovada, the Chargers enjoy numerous positive trends here. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight visits to Denver and 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff road games.
The Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine games as underdogs of nine or more points and 6-1 ATS in their past seven on the road vs divisional foes.
Meanwhile, some OVER trends exist here as the OVER is 10-2-1 past 13 Denver home games and 6-1 past seven Denver playoff games. Still, the Broncos are 2-6 ATS past eight playoff games but they are 14-2 SU, 11-5 ATS past 16 games vs divisional foes.
The Broncos sport a record of 13-3 and 10-6 ATS heading into this matchup, while the Chargers sit at 10-7 and 10-6-1 ATS on the season. The over under records are 11-5 for the Broncos and 7-10 for the Chargers.
Broncos Chargers betting odds: Those siding with the visitors in this matchup saw the Chargers listed as 9-point underdogs at shops such as Bovada. Meanwhile, the over under line for the matchup was at 55 over at TopBet.
The Broncos - Chargers odds would favor the Broncos if the lines were set according to power ranks. Denver is rated No. 3 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Chargers sit at No. 10. Math models based on recent stats and predictive formulas point to a 37-29 win for the Broncos.
The Chargers were a 27-10 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Bengals. They covered the 6.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (37) made winners of UNDER bettors. In their last game, the Chargers were Wildcard Playoff winners, coming out on top of the Bengals by a score of 27-10. Denver comes off a game where it received a 4-TD performance from Peyton Manning in defeating the Raiders 34-14.
How They Match Up:
The game also pits Denver's No. 1-ranked offense, averaging 37.88 PPG, against a Chargers defense that ranks No. 9 this week at 21.06 PPG. The Broncos aerial game is averaging 340.25 yards per game, more than the Chargers secondary allows through the air, 262.65 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Chargers feature the league's No. 13-rated road run defense, allowing 112.22 yards per game. Denver, meanwhile, ranks No. 19 in rushing offense at home.
A few Chargers at Broncos trends to consider:
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Diego's last 13 games
San Diego is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 17 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
San Diego home to , Wednesday, December 31st
Denver home to , Wednesday, December 31st