A season-ending injury to New England Patriots tight end Ron Gronkowski isn’t the only thing that’s shrunk the point spread on the favored Patriots’ visit to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
The Patriots opened as high as 3.5-point road favorites. They’ve owned the Dolphins, winning seven consecutive meetings and going 5-1-1 against the spread in those games. But Miami is surging, and the line is shrinking.
The Patriots were as small as 1-point favorites early in the week at Sportsbook.
The Dolphins have won three of four to stay alive in the AFC playoff race and have gone 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games as home underdogs.
New England came from behind to beat the Dolphins, 27-17, in late October.
Supporters of the Patriots have seen them go 10-3 and 6-7 ATS so far this season, while the Dolphins are at 7-6 and 8-5 ATS. In totals betting, the Dolphins are 7-6, while the Patriots are 7-6.
View New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Odds and Stats.
Oddsmakers at Sportsbook had the Dolphins as 3.5-point underdogs in the game, while the betting total was sitting at 45.5.
It's a betting matchup between the No. 16-rated Dolphins and the No. 9-ranked Patriots, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark. Predictive-scoring models run on this game indicate a potential 26-22 result in favor of the Patriots.
Will the Patriots trail at any point in the second half vs the Dolphins and come back to win the game? (from Sportsbook
Yes +100
No -140
New England won its last outing, a 27-26 result against the Browns on December 8. The Patriots failed to cover in that game as a 10-point favorite, while the 53 combined points took the game OVER the total. Last time out, Ryan Tannehill threw for 3 scores and 200 yards in leading his team past Pittsburgh at Heinz Field.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Miami's No. 21-ranked offense (22 PPG) against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 10 at 22.08 PPG. The Dolphins passing attack has averaged 229.08 yards per game, less than the Patriots give up through the air (236.46 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Patriots feature the league's No. 23-rated road run defense, allowing 126.17 yards per game. Miami, meanwhile, ranks No. 27 in rushing offense at home.
A few Patriots at Dolphins trends to consider:
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New England is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Next up:
New England at Baltimore, Sunday, December 22nd
Miami at Buffalo, Sunday, December 22nd
