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Dolphins vs Texans: Week 1 Prediction

The Houston Texans kick off their AFC South title defense against the Miami Dolphins Sunday at Reliant Stadium in a game that has seen the biggest line move of the week.

Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson lead a stacked offense that will need to score in bunches to cover this week as an 11-point chalk at Bovada. But the line is even higher at 5Dimes where the number moved from -6.5 to -13.5.

Houston has never lost to Miami, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in six career meetings.

But the point spread might not be the best play here. Miami has played 5 straight September UNDERs and bring a rookie QB to town to face a Super Bowl contender.

View Miami vs Houston Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
Oddsmakers opened the Texans as 6.5-point favorites in the game but it soared at 5Dimes, while the betting total was sitting at 43.5.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 1-rated Texans and the No. 16-rated Dolphins in this matchup. Predictive formulas point to a 27-21 win for the Texans on Sunday.

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Miami Dolphins Trends:
When playing in September are 3-7
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7

Houston Texans Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing outside the division are 6-4

 

A few Dolphins at Texans trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games at home
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
Houston is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games

Next up:
Miami home to Oakland, Sunday, September 16
Houston at Jacksonville, Sunday, September 16