Game Preview - Jaguars underdogs vs Broncos at Denver
|Jacksonville Jaguars||Denver Broncos|
|0-5||October 13, 2013, 04:05 | Sports Authority Field at Mile High||5-0|
It's the perfect storm, as far as handicapping an NFL game goes. And it could get ugly.
On one side, we've got Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, who are 5-0 and averaging a ridiculous 46 points per game.
On the other side, we've got the 0-5 Jacksonville Jaguars, who have scored the exact same number of points this season as the Broncos did Sunday against Dallas.
Consequently, we also have the largest NFL pointspread in, oh, 50 years or so.
In the early betting Denver was favored by 27 points for Sunday's game at Mile High against the Jags (4:05 pm ET, CBS), and the question that immediately came to mind was “is that enough?” Of note, the next six biggest point spreads in NFL history saw the underdogs cover five times. And Denver is just 1-4 ATS in five games against the Jags. Are you worried now?
The Broncos currently sports a record of 5-0, and have posted a corresponding betting slate of 3-2 ATS. The Jaguars are 0-5 and 0-5 ATS. Betting totals have seen the Broncos post a 5-0 over under record this season, while the Jaguars have gone 2-3 against the number.
Bettors looking to back the visiting Jaguars in this one found them as 27-point underdogs earlier in the week at Bovada, while the total was settling in the neighborhood of 52.5 at shops such as 5Dimes.
According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 2-rated Broncos and the No. 32-rated Jaguars in this matchup. Predictive formulas point to a 44-6 win for the Broncos on Sunday.
In their last action, Jacksonville was a 34-20 loser on the road against the Rams. They failed to cover the 12.5-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (54) was profitable news for OVER bettors. Jacksonville lost its last outing 34-20 against St. Louis on Sunday, getting a 136-yard receiving performance from Justin Blackmon in a losing cause at Edward Jones Dome. Peyton Manning dusted the Cowboys secondary for 4 TDs last time out as the Broncos defeated Dallas 51-48 at AT&T Stadium.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Denver's No. 1-ranked offense (46 PPG) against a Jaguars defense that ranks No. 31 at 32.6 PPG. The Broncos passing attack has averaged 373.8 yards per game, more than the Jaguars give up through the air (219.2 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Jaguars have the league's worst-rated road run defense. Denver, meanwhile, ranks No. 13 in rushing offense at home. Rushing won't matter a whole lot in a game where Manning is expected to simply shred the Jags through the air.
A few Jaguars at Broncos trends to consider:
Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Jacksonville is 1-16 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Jacksonville at San Diego, Sunday, October 20th
Denver at Indianapolis, Sunday, October 20th