Super Bowl Revenge Factor Sways Line
The theme of Super Bowl 46 betting will be payback and revenge when the New York Giants battle the New England Patriots.
There is the obvious Super Bowl revenge factor for the Patriots, whose perfect season in 2007 was wrecked by the Giants in Super Bowl 42. Patriots fans still squirm at the mention of David Tyree.
And earlier this season, the Giants went to Foxboro and upset the Pats 24-20 as 10-point road dogs. So there is seasonal revenge and Super Bowl revenge, not to mention that fact that the Giants are 6-2 ATS in eight games against New England dating back to 1987.
ADVERTISEMENT: Bet the Super Bowl coin toss and literally hundreds of other cool props. Check out the $100 free bet offer for new players at Bovada.
The last three times the Giants faced the Patriots, they were double-digit underdogs, winning outright twice. Can they continue their late-season run of solid play and good luck and extend the recent NFC Super Bowl trend (NFC teams are 5-2 ATS past 7 games after losing many in a row).
Will the UNDER prevail, as it has in 6 of 8 meetings and which has been the over under trend in recent 6 Super Bowls (5 of the past 6 games went UNDER the number)?
Last year, the Green Bay Packers won four straight away from home in the playoffs to claim Super Bowl 45. The Giants are in line to repeat that feat and they are 7-2 ATS in 9 recent 'road' games (while acknowledging this is essentially a neutral site game).
The Patriots meanwhile have won 10 of 12 road games lately and are 9-2-1 ATS during that timeframe. Of course, the only real lock for Super Bowl bettors is a wager on what would seem to be the most even - the Super Bowl coin toss.
In the past 15 Super Bowls, the AFC has won zero times - that's right, the NFC is 15-0 in Super Bowl coin tosses, something superstitious or trend-heavy bettors should check out at shops such as Bovada.
Overall, underdogs are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 Super Bowls.
If you're going with the Patriots in this one, they opened as 3.5-point favorites on the betting line for the contest but were quickly bet down to -3 at TopBet. Totals bettors have seen that number set at 55 for Monday.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The power rankings show a disparity between these teams, with the Patriots rated this week at No. 11 and the Giants sitting at No. 23. It may or may not play a role in OddsShark score prediction models that turned out a 36-25 result in favor of the Patriots this week.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up New England's No. 3-ranked offense (31.5 PPG) against a Giants defense that ranks No. 25 at 24.5 PPG. The Patriots passing attack has averaged 312.8 yards per game, more than the Giants give up through the air (250.6 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Giants feature the league's No. 22-rated road run defense, allowing 132.1 yards per game. New England, meanwhile, ranks No. 20 in rushing offense at home.
The Giants were a 20-17 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the 49ers. They covered the 2.5-point spread as underdogs, while the total score (37) made winners of UNDER bettors. Eli Manning led his team to victory last time out, throwing for 316 yards Sunday as the Giants downed the 49ers 20-17 at Candlestick Park.
New England was a 23-20 winner in its last match at home against the Ravens. They failed to cover the 7-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 43 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window. The Patriots grabbed a Conference Playoff victory over the Ravens in their last game, winning 23-20 at Gillette Stadium.
PLAYER PROPS - first TD at Bovada:
Player to score the first TD in the game?
Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE 11/2
Aaron Hernandez (NE) TE 15/2
Victor Cruz (NYG) WR 15/2
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE) RB 15/2
Wes Welker (NE) WR 15/2
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) WR 17/2
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) RB 17/2
Brandon Jacobs (NYG) RB 12/1
Deion Branch (NE) WR 14/1
Mario Manningham (NYG) WR 14/1
Danny Woodhead (NE) RB 20/1
Jake Ballard (NYG) TE 20/1
ChadOchocinco (NE) WR 25/1
Stevan Ridley (NE) RB 25/1
Tom Brady (NE) QB 25/1
Travis Beckum (NYG) TE 35/1
Julian Edelman (NE) WR 35/1
Eli Manning (NYG) QB 35/1
Bear Pascoe (NYG) TE 40/1
D.J. Ware (NYG) RB 50/1
No TD scored in the game 150/1
New York Giants Trends:
When playing in February are 1-0
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When an underdog on the road are 6-4
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in February are 3-1
When playing on turf are 9-1
After being outgained are 8-2
When favored at home are 9-1
A few Giants at Patriots trends to consider:
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing New England
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
New England is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants