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Campbell: Bet DEN Like a Sharp in SB50

Anderson Hillman Broncos

So you like the Denver Broncos in this year’s Super Bowl. And why not? This game has gone to the dogs in recent seasons, while the team getting the points has covered 12 of the last 15 times—an astronomical winning edge of 80 percent by betting standards. 

This is also the biggest spread we’ve seen in a Super Bowl since 2009 when Pittsburgh was favored by seven over Arizona, a number that proved too steep for the Steelers in their 27-23 victory. 

So if you’re leaning toward taking the points, I’d advise that you don’t simply schlepp like a square with your piggy bank to the most convenient sports book and hammer the Broncos at whatever number you’re offered. Here’s how I’d suggest the Bronco bettors play it instead:  

Buy the point(s) to Denver +6

As I write this, Bovada is the only book currently offering the Broncos at +6. Other than that, you’re going to have to pay extra to get it where most other books are offering 4.5, 5 or 5.5. I feel it’s worth it at 5.5 or maybe 5. Remember that winning is the most important element when you place a bet and Denver is a whole lot more appealing at the key number of 6 in a game that is theoretically the sharpest line of the season. Oddsmakers have been capping Broncos games with precision lately too, where they failed to cover by just three points against San Diego, pushed against the Steelers and covered by just five points against the Pats over the course of their last three games.

Then look to middle using in-game wagering

This is how the pros like to bet the NFL. Stay logged on to your book after kickoff because taking the underdog out of the gate often provides a middling opportunity. For newbies, that means you can win wagers on both sides in the same game. What you’re looking for is Denver to jump out to an early lead – the bigger the lead, the better – and then you’ll want to look to snatch up Carolina as a smaller favorite. So if you can get the Panthers at -3 after a Denver score in this situation, you would win both wagers if Carolina wins by four or five points and you’ll win at least one wager while pushing the other if Carolina wins by 3 or 6.  The worst case when you middle is that you win one wager and not the other and you end up being short the juice. Smaller risk, bigger reward potential. It’s a sharp way to do it and it also makes for some pretty fun action when your middle is still alive late in the game.

Take the Broncos straight up, too

The team that has covered the spread has also won the game in 43 of 49 Super Bowls. Think about that. That’s a staggering winning rate of 88 percent. History says you’d be silly not to put at least a little something on the moneyline if you like the Broncos and you’re looking at a payout ranging between +145 to +175 depending on where you book. I’d recommend putting 80 percent of your Super Bowl bankroll on the spread and 15 percent on the moneyline. Which leaves five percent of your bankroll to…

Sprinkle a little on some Denver longshots to win MVP

Seven of the last nine MVPs at the Super Bowl have been QBs and 26 of 49 all-time. So why would I tell you to avoid Peyton Manning? Because of his numbers this season. Nine touchdowns against 17 interceptions and only two games with more than 300 yards. Manning is more about survive than thrive this year. So if you’re on the Denver train, this could be a great opportunity for a longshot to win the MVP. If Von Miller (+1800 at Bet365) , Emmanuel Sanders (+2500), CJ Anderson (+2500), or Demaryius Thomas (+2800) win MVP, it could be a huge bonus for the risk of coffee money if Denver pulls through for you.

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