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How Much is Brady Worth To The Odds?

By now you've heard. New England Patriots QB Tom Brady’s suspension was reinstated by the U.S. Court of appeals on Monday. 

“It was a very interesting and frustrating day for oddsmakers with the news of Stephen Curry potentially being really hurt and Tom Brady being suspended once again,” said Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada. “The Patriots were favorites before the news and if the suspension holds, they will most likely fall behind the Seahawks and Packers.” 

The question now is: How much is Brady worth? 

Several of the sports books who put the Pats back up on the board slid them back from their opening number of 6-1 to win the Super Bowl to numbers like +750 or 8-1. The Westgate SuperBook was one that didn’t budge, leaving the Pats right where they were previously at 6-1. 

In terms of season OVER/UNDER win totals, the Patriots were sitting at 10.5 games for the 2016 season with hefty -155 juice on the OVER and that number fell slightly to 10 wins with just -125 juice on the OVER. 

Where the real interest in the odds lies, though, is in the early season point spreads which have been released at a small handful of books. Only one online book, BetOnline, appears to have re-released its Week 1 odds where the Patriots are 5.5-point underdogs at Arizona after opening as a pick ‘em. 

Simple math would say that means Brady is worth 5.5 points to the spread. If you look at CT Technology’s numbers in Las Vegas for Week 1, they have Brady at closer to four points. 

Patriots Week 1 lines at: 
Wk 1: +4.5 at Ari (was Pk)
Wk 2: -4.5 vs Mia (was -9)
Wk 3: -3 vs Hou (was -7)
Wk 4: -3 vs Buf (was -7.5)

I feel Brady is worth more like seven or 7.5 points to the spread under normal circumstances and is worth the most to the odds than any player in the NFL. But these aren’t normal circumstances. 

The Pats will have the NFL draft and an entire offseason to address how they’ll fix their quarterback situation through the first four games of the season. It isn’t quite the same as a normal fill-in role where a QB might be hurt in a game and teams scramble to adjust. The offseason prep time is worth at least a couple of points and I feel like New England will be able to come up with something to weather the storm. 

Bovada is a little less optimistic with its prop where it has the OVER/UNDER set at 1.5 wins for the Patriots’ first four games. I love the OVER in this one and think the Pats win at least two games. 

As for Week 1? I was previously liking the Cardinals as a pick but now that New England is getting close to a touchdown, I’ll take the points. 

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