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Jonny Knows Picks: NFL Edition Week 14

This feels a little strange. First NFL day that doesn't come after a full slate of college football. 

Also it's cold outside. Very cold. Hopefully our picks are warmer. 

I went 3-4 last week and I'm now 29-36-4 on the season. Here's who I like for this week: 

Oakland at Kansas City -3.5, 45.5

  • KC is 9-3 but just 6-6 against the spread. 
  • I really like the OVER in this game. The Raiders own the No. 4 passing attack in the NFL and they go up against a Chiefs D that’s been giving up 318 yards passing in its last three games. 
  • Raiders last 6 games went OVER and Chiefs last 2 went OVER. Chiefs D is giving up well over 400 yds/gm over its last three. 

Pick: OVER 

Denver at Tennessee -1.5., 43.5 

  • You can get the Titans at +225 to win AFC South, second favorite to the Texans. 
  • Since Week 6 no QB has a higher passer rating than Mariota, no QB has accounted for more than 23 touchdowns & Titans have been the No. 1 scoring offense 30.9 points. 
  • 8 of last 9 games have played over for Tennessee because their secondary is so terrible. Giving up 300 yards passing per game over last 3. 
  • Broncos No. 1 passing defense in the NFL 

Pick: OVER  

Cincinnati at Browns +5.5, 43

  • Not sure how a bye is going to help the Browns cover a TD. Browns are +110 to go winless this year and I feel like some of that may be factored into the line. 
  • Bengals won and covered the last four meetings. Had 559 yards of offense in the first meeting this season. 

Pick: Bengals 

Seattle at Green Bay +3, 46.5 

  • All the focus seems to be on the Earl Thomas injury for Seattle but I still think they dismantle Green Bay. 
  • The O-line had a terrible game two weeks ago without starting center Justin Britt against Tampa Bay and then they came out and had their best game of the season last week against Carolina with most points, yards and rushing yards of the year. 
  • I still think this secondary is pretty good without Thomas and this Packers defense hasn’t been able to slow a good offense yet this season. It allowed at least 27 points against the best 6 offenses it has faced this season. 

Pick: Seattle -3 

Cowboys at Giants -3, 47.5

  • Giants have covered the last four meetings and Dallas has failed to cover in its last two games. 
  • Dallas has been really bad against the pass its last three games – 316 yds per game. 
  • The Giants are much better at home this season with 300 yards passing per game at home. 

Pick: Cowboys  

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers -2.5, 43.5 

  • Jets have quit on their season and are now auditioning Bryce Petty in an experiment to see if he can be their next QB. 
  • The last time a 1-11 team was favored was in 1993 when the Patriots were 1-11 and were favored by 5.5 against the Bengals. They won that game 7-2, failing to cover the spread
     

Pick: 49ers 

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