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Monday Night Football Player Prop Bet Picks

Life, death, taxes and the 2017 Chiefs playing in prime time. If only the cover of darkness allowed Kansas City’s defense to hide in the shadows.

The Chiefs (5-2, 5-2 ATS) have allowed 28 points and 445 total yards per game over the past three weeks. That’s great news for their Week 8 opponent, Denver, which has struggled offensively the last month. The Broncos are averaging just 10.5 points per game in their past four games. On the bright side, their defense remains stout as they’ve allowed only 258.5 yards per game during that stretch.

So, the main events tonight are Kansas City’s top-tier offense vs. Denver’s top-tier defense AND a struggling Broncos offense with an opportunity against a Chiefs defense allowing the most yards per play over the past three games (6.9 YAPP).

All prop odds courtesy of Bovada.

C.J Anderson Total Rush Yards O/U (57 ½)
The Bet: OVER (-125)

AND

Jamaal Charles Total Rush + Rec O/U (35 ½)
The Bet: OVER (-125)

In case you missed the bullet point in the intro, the Chiefs defense is bad. The rush defense ranks 24th in the league at 124.6 yards per game and 29th in yards per rush (4.7 YPR).

Against Oakland, when Marshawn Lynch was ejected, Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington combined for 66 yards on 18 carries. Against Pittsburgh, Le’Veon Bell had 32 carries for 179 and Lamar Miller – the best comp for tonight’s game – finished with 14 carries for 74 yards. At C.J. Anderson’s current 4.3 YPR, he’d need 14-15 carries against a bottom-five rush defense. As it pertains to Charles, one shouldn’t get wrapped up in “narrative” or “revenge games,” but I think Denver needs more production out of its running backs as Peyton Manning isn’t walking through that door to relieve Trevor Siemian. Charles caught four passes on four targets for 20 yards against the Chargers last week and I believe 75 percent of his production tonight comes via receiving yards.

Note: Siemian’s passing prop bets possess strong vig on the UNDERs, leading me to believe a focus on the Broncos run game is on tap tonight.

Bennie Fowler Total Rec. Yards O/U (37 ½)
The Bet: OVER (-125)

If Emmanuel Sanders is inactive with an ankle sprain, I like Fowler (no relation) in this spot. Oakland racked up 404 receiving yards, Pittsburgh 252 and Houston 262 against the Chiefs secondary. With the 37 ½ so low, I think Siemian plays it safe with his secondary option behind Demaryius Thomas.

No action if Emmanuel Sanders is active

Alex Smith Total Interceptions O/U (½)
The Bet: UNDER (-140)

Among qualified NFL quarterbacks, Alex Smith is the only one without an interception this season. The Broncos haven’t picked off a starting QB since Week 2 when Dak Prescott tossed two. Oakland’s second-stringer, EJ Manuel, tossed one late in the fourth quarter after Derek Carr was knocked out with a back fracture. Smith just needs to avoid the tipped-pass pick and he’ll be fine.

Kareem Hunt Total Rush Yards O/U (80 ½)
The Bet: UNDER (+105)

Hunt has been as consistent as they come this season, but his rush production was stunted two weeks ago when the Steelers held him to 21 yards on nine carries. Granted, he chipped in 89 yards on five receptions, which reminded me of how Minnesota’s Jerick McKinnon (6 rec. for 72 yards) attacked the Cleveland Browns’ elite (yes, elite) rush defense on Sunday. I think Kansas City uses Hunt in a similar way tonight against Denver’s second-ranked rush defense (3.0 YPR).

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