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Monday Night Football: Saints 49ers

If you believe in trends, you should believe Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints will cover the spread against the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

These teams have met 12 times since 1998 and New Orleans is 10-2 ATS in that span. They have also covered the spread each of the past five times they visited San Francisco (and the score went OVER the total the past six meetings here). While history points to a Saints cover, the present may not. Just ask Patriots bettors who hoped an 11-1 ATS run for New England in road games against the Jets would pay off (it didn't in a 28-14 loss Sunday).

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It seems like forever since the Saints opened the season with a 14-9 win over the Vikings as 5.5-point favorites. The Saints' juggernaut offense got off to a slow start in their debut, but it was still enough to get past a Vikings squad that looked lost when trying to move the ball down the field through the air.

Brees finished with 237 yards passing and a touchdown and should thank his offensive line for keeping the Vikings' pass rush off his back. Minnesota led the league in sacks last season but put Brees on the ground only once in Week 1. Pierre Thomas barely touched the ball in the first half against the Vikings, but finished strong in the second half and put up 71 yards and a TD on 19 carries. One small concern for the Saints has to be kicker Garrett Hartley, who missed two make-able field goals. Hartley missed only two field goals in five games last season. Get the most betting options and fastest payouts of any sportsbook. Click here! The 49ers' season opener against Seattle was a disaster. San Francisco was touted as the NFC West favorites entering the season, but didn't live up to the billing in a 31-6 loss to Seattle as a 3-point road favorite. Quarterback Alex Smith completed 26 of 45 pass attempts for 225 yards with two drive-killing interceptions.

Frank Gore couldn't find any room to run with only 38 rushing yards on 17 carries, and Michael Crabtree was nonexistent with two catches for 12 yards. The San Francisco defense was supposed to be a strength this season, but they were unable to contain Matt Hasselbeck and what was supposed to be a suspect Seattle offense. If the 49ers' defense plays the same way versus the Saints it could be over quickly Monday night. Brees has had a lot of success against the 49ers in his career. In four games against San Francisco Brees has completed 65% of his passes for 1,221 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. The last time the Saints met up with the 49ers they crushed them 31-17 as a 5-point home favorite behind three touchdowns from Brees. In tonight's game the Saints not surprisingly are a 6-point road favorite at Bovada.

New Orleans has won five straight against the 49ers while posting a 4-1 record ATS. Looking back even further the Saints are 8-2 both SU and ATS in their last 10 versus San Francisco. Don't immediately count out the 49ers at home, though, as San Francisco has been much better at home than on the road recently. San Francisco has won four in a row at home and they're 9-2 SU in their last 11 at home. They're also 7-2-2 ATS in those 11 games.