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How Badly Will Brady Beat Up the Browns?

Maybe you didn’t hear, but Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games this season and he’ll make his return on Sunday vs the Browns. With Brady back in the lineup, oddsmakers are expecting a one-sided beatdown, with the Patriots opening the week as a 10.5-point favorite for the road game — easily the biggest spread of the week and the first double-digit road fave of the season.

Shark Bites
  • The Browns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as underdog.
  • The Patriots are 42-8 SU in their last 50 games after a loss.
  • The Browns have allowed the third-most TD passes this season.

Brady should make an immediate impact on a New England offense that was shut out at home by the Bills in Week 4. Last season, with Brady playing in all 16 games, the Patriots averaged 29.1 points per game, but they’ve put up just 20.3 without him this season.

Taking a look at that big spread, the Patriots are 4-5-1 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 2000. League-wide in that same time frame in that spot, the favorite is just 32-49 ATS. Last season, Brady led the way to six blowouts of 17 points or more, with two of those taking place on the road.

We probably shouldn’t expect any surprises from the Browns as they’re 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. Over the last three seasons, they have eight home losses of 13 points or more.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The point spread was settled in at 10 for the host Cleveland Browns earlier in the week, according to Bovada. The over under betting line was hovering around 47, with odds movement expected during the week at MyBookie.

Handicapping prediction models run by the computers at Odds Shark pick a 28-17 result in favor of the Patriots. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Cleveland Browns are 0-4 so far on the season, and 1-3 ATS vs the point spread. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are 3-1 and 3-1 ATS. Those over under betting have seen Cleveland go 3-1 and the New England Patriots go 1-2-1 on the totals. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Cleveland vs New England injuries news.

This game matches up the No. 29 (Cleveland Browns) and the No. 13 (New England Patriots) teams in the league, according to our current NFL Power Rankings at Odds Shark.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Cleveland's No. 26-ranked offense, averaging 18.5 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 4 this week at 15.25 PPG. The Browns aerial game is averaging 222 yards per game, less than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 265 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the New England Patriots own the league's No. 11-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 92 yards per game when on the road. Cleveland, on the other hand, rates No. 5 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last gridiron battle, Martellus Bennett did much of the damage, producing 109 receiving yards but New England managed to defeat the Patriots 16-0 at Gillette Stadium.

Last time we saw the Browns, Isaiah Crowell racked up 112 rushing yards, but the Redskins rolled to a 31-20 victory at FedExField.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
  • New England is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
  • New England is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
  • Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games
  • Cleveland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

New England home to Cincinnati, Sunday, October 16th
Cleveland at Tennessee, Sunday, October 16th

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