Patriots heavy chalk vs Cowboys
New England heads into a bye week by hosting the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has benefitted from an extra week of rest and practice.
Dallas has been solid for bettors in this situation, going 5-1 ATS in the past 6 seasons following a bye week. And they are getting 7.5 points early in the week from oddsmakers.
Once again, the OVER could be the play where the Pats are concerned. In 20 recent games as a favorite, the OVER prevailed 17 times.
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If you're going with the Patriots in this one, they're listed as 6.5-point favorites on the betting line for the contest. Totals bettors have seen that number set at 54 for Monday.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The game pits the Patriots, currently No. 4 in our OddsShark NFL Power Rankings, against the Cowboys, who rate No. 1 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a 36-26 victory for the Patriots.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up New England's No. 2-ranked offense (33 PPG) against a Cowboys defense that ranks No. 23 at 25.2 PPG. The Patriots passing attack has averaged 366.6 yards per game, more than the Cowboys give up through the air (230 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Cowboys feature the league's No. 1-rated road run defense, allowing 59.5 yards per game. New England, meanwhile, ranks No. 13 in rushing offense at home.
Dallas lost its last outing, a 34-30 result against the Lions on October 2. The Cowboys failed to cover in that game as a 2-point favorite, while the 64 combined points took the game OVER the total. Tony Romo beat the Lions secondary for 3 TDs last time out, but the Cowboys lost to Detroit 34-30 at Cowboys Stadium.
New England won its last outing, a 30-21 result against the Jets on October 9. The Patriots covered in that game as a 7.5-point favorite, while the 51 combined points took the game OVER the total. In their last game, New England's aerial attack generated 321 yards and the Patriots came away with a 30-21 victory over New York at Gillette Stadium.
Dallas Cowboys Trends:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on turf are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 3-7
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 9-1
A few Cowboys at Patriots trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing New England
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games at home
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of New England's last 16 games
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Dallas home to St. Louis, Sunday, October 23
New England at Pittsburgh, Sunday, October 30