The Atlanta Falcons have won four straight against San Francisco, but will be a home underdog this Sunday when they host the 49ers at the Georgia Dome in the NFC championship game.
Atlanta is 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS at home this season and 6-1 SU at home to San Fran since 1998.
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in eight games with Colin Kaepernick starting at quarterback. The total has gone OVER in each of San Francisco's last five games and in eight of its last nine games.
[ Check out 49ers vs Falcons props including Colin Kaepernick and Matthew Ryan betting options ]
Since 2009, Atlanta has won eight in a row vs NFC West teams, including last week's victory over Seattle. The 49ers are just 2-7 ATS on the road against NFC South teams dating back to 2004, according to the NFL database here at Odds Shark.
“I am not too shocked that the public is pounding the 49ers after their performance last week, or should I say Kaepernick’s, hence the early line move going from 3.5 point to 5 point favorites already and is not really making a difference as 75% of the money is still coming in on them," said Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada.
NFC championship Betting Line:
Bettors who were going with the Falcons in this one found them listed as 3-point underdogs on the betting line early in the week but it had moved to +5 at . Totals bettors have seen that number set earlier in the week at 47.5 at 5Dimes.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The game pits the Falcons, currently No. 12 in our OddsShark NFL Power Rankings, against the 49ers, who rate No. 2 in the latest survey. Meanwhile, math and handicapping models run on this game predict a super-tight 29.4-29.2 victory for the visiting 49ers.
How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up Atlanta's No. 7-ranked offense (26.2 PPG) against a 49ers defense that ranks No. 2 at 17.1 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 281.8 yards per game, more than the 49ers give up through the air (200.2 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the 49ers own the league's No. 2-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 82.2 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 26 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
The 49ers were a 45-31 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Packers. They covered the 3-point spread as favorites, while the total score (76) made winners of OVER bettors. Colin Kaepernick ran through the Green Bay defense for 181 yards in San Francisco's last game, handing the Packers a 45-31 setback on Saturday at Candlestick Park.
Atlanta was a 30-28 winner in its last match at home against the Seahawks. They failed to cover the 2.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 58 sent OVER bettors to the payout window. Atlanta comes off a game where it received a 3-TD performance from Matt Ryan in defeating the Seahawks 30-28.
San Francisco 49ers Trends:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 6-3-1
When playing outside the division are 8-2
Atlanta Falcons Trends:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on turf are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 10-0
A few 49ers at Falcons trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Atlanta is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games