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Best Bets For Every NFL Team: See Where The Value Lies

Odds Shark Staff Published on: Sep 06, 2023 3:16 PM ET

We survived the offseason and now we're back for another NFL season.

We know you want to lock in some season-long bets to cash in a few months, so we have you covered. Without further ado, here are the Odds Shark staff's best bets for every NFL team this season:

AFC East Best Bets

New England Patriots - OVER 7.5 Wins (+115)

Ahead of Week 1, the Patriots face their lowest win total since 2000, Tom Brady's rookie season. Last season, New England was the worst red-zone team in football, converting just 42% of its opportunities. With the addition of Ezekiel Elliott and another year of experience for Mac Jones, I'll be watching for a significant leap in the Pats' offensive production. All that should lead to a winning record. 

Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen O 32.5 Passing TDs (EVEN)

I'm not convinced the Bills are the a complete wagon in the AFC East. Buffalo is no longer a lock to win OVER 10.5 games (-150) or secure a division title (+120), but Allen should keep chugging. In a year where the Bills' defense might be in shambles, it's safe to count on Allen to hit OVER 32.5 TDs for his fourth straight season.

Miami Dolphins - To Miss Playoffs (EVEN)

Sorry, Fins fans, but someone's got to miss the postseason. Miami squeaked in a year ago, but the AFC East has improved over the summer. Aaron Rodgers now runs the offense in New York; the Patriots will improve, and the Bills are still favored to win the division.

It'll be close until the very end, but with such stiff competition, an EVEN-money bet is hard to deny.

New York Jets - To Win The Division (+300)

Last year's Jets squad was hamstrung by incompetent quarterback play. I'm not a huge Rodgers believer, but he'll at least be composed and efficient under pressure. There are weapons on offense to get it done, and New York's defense should be strong once again.

If the Jets control the season series vs either Buffalo or Miami, the route to a division title isn't as murky.

AFC North Best Bets

Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson OVER 3450.5 Passing Yards (-125)

Lamar has a new offensive coordinator, two new receiving weapons (OBJ and Zay Flowers), and a reenforced offensive line. This seems like a perfect year for the Ravens QB To set a new passing yards benchmark for himself. The only issue I can predict is health, as he's played just 12 games each of the past two seasons.

Cincinnati Bengals - To Lose In Conference Championship Game (+600)

Always the bridesmaids, the Bengals have positioned themselves as one of the best teams in the AFC. But, just not the best. Both the Chiefs and Bills are a touch ahead of Cinci this year, I'd say, giving the Bengals two potential teams to lose to in the AFC Championship.

Cleveland Browns - Nick Chubb OVER 9.5 Rushing TDs (-115)

Nick Chubb is a dog. He's averaged 9.6 rushing touchdowns per season in his first five NFL campaigns despite playing just one full season in the last three years.

While Kareem Hunt ate into his careers a bit last year, Chubb is the clear lead back in Cleveland now. There's no one to take his carries in 2023 and he's going to run wild this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Najee Harris UNDER 975.5 Rushing Yards (-170)

Najee Harris hasn't proven to be a good running back at the NFL level. Sure he's racked up over 1000 yards and seven touchdowns in his first two seasons, but he's doing it on bulk not efficiency. Harris averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in his first two seasons, and if a better runner comes along he'll start to lose reps. It sure looks like Jaylen Warren, one of the preseason's breakout stars, can be that guy to eat into Harris' reps.

AFC South Best Bets

Indianapolis Colts - Michael Pittman Jr. Most Regular Receiving Yards In AFC South (+600)

The Matt Ryan era is over for the Colts, which implies their offense may finally be able to generate with Anthony Richardson, the fourth-overall draft pick from this season. With Isiah McKenzie likely handling the short-passing game, Richardson will be looking for Pittman, who threw up 925 yards last year, down the field to rack up those yards. 

Houston Texans -  CJ Stroud Most Regular Season TD’s In AFC South (+800)

Tempting profit attached to another QB1 straight from the NCAAF, CJ Stroud has a bullet of an arm that tossed for 41 passing touchdowns in his last year with the Ohio State Buckeyes. Trevor Lawrence has mobility, earning nearly 300 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns on his own. Whereas, if Stroud plays like he did in college, he will rely on his arm more.

Tennessee Titans - AFC South Winner (+275)

If it weren’t for a string of 34 players on the injured reserve and the seven-game skid to finish the season, the Titans were contenders to take the division. Even with those factors, Jacksonville still barely managed to defeat Tennessee last January (20-16) despite half its roster not on the field. QB Ryan Tannehill is healthy and entering a contract year, with hopes to continue his career, expect the Titans to push for the top. 

Jacksonville Jaguars - OVER 9.5 Regular Season Wins (-130)

Finishing last regular season at the 9-8 record mark, the Jaguars boost their offense bringing in WR Calvin Ridley, who hasn’t played a full season in two years. With a new receiver, signal-caller Trevor Lawrence has options with Ridley and Christian Kirk to earn at least one extra win than the Jaguars had last year.

AFC West Best Bets

Denver Broncos - Russell Wilson UNDER 23.5 Passing TDs (-120)

Gone are the days of Russell Wilson as an elite quarterback in this league. Sure, he’s got Sean Payton calling the shots now. But Wilson’s issue wasn’t the coach but the fact that he looked cooked. Maybe Payton finds a bit of efficiency and squeezes out a bit more offense out of Wilson, but it won’t be enough.

Kansas City Chiefs - OVER 11.5 Wins (-140)

The Chiefs have won 12 or more games in each of the last four seasons. Their 14 wins last season were the most in franchise history. I know they lost a bit of quality, but there’s no way they lost three wins worth of quality. There’s no way KC hits the UNDER.

Las Vegas Raiders - Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 3300.5 passing yards (EVEN)

Call me an optimist but I think Jimmy G stays healthy all year. And if he does, he easily passes his 3300.5 passing year total. In five of six seasons since 2017, Garoppolo has paced out to OVER 3300.5 yards. If he’s healthy all year, and I assume he will be, he hits the OVER.

Las Angeles Chargers - Austin Ekeler OVER 775.5 rushing yards (-120)

There’s no question that the Chargers need to run the ball more in 2023. They ranked 30th in terms of total rushing yards last season with 1,524. Ekeler is their main running back and has picked up more than 910 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons. No way he hits LESS than 775.

NFC East Best Bets

New York Giants - To Make Playoffs (+150)

These odds are shocking to me. While he only threw for 3,205 yards, quarterback Daniel Jones made massive improvements a season ago, rushing for 708 yards and seven touchdowns with just five interceptions. The team also added Darren Waller at tight end and Saquon Barkley will return from his holdout.

New York isn’t exceptional in any one area, but as a whole, this roster is robust enough to earn a wild-card berth.

Dallas Cowboys - Dak Prescott OVER 12.5 Interceptions (EVEN)

Pegged by many fantasy analysts as a regression candidate, Prescott’s Cowboys face the Jets, Patriots, and 49ers in the first five weeks of the season, putting Dak at risk of racking up plenty of turnovers early. The 30-year-old’s never been too wild with turnovers, but he led the NFC last season with 15 INTs. I’m not as high on the Cowboys this year, and Prescott is part of the reason why. Bet the OVER before the value disappears.

Washington Commanders - To Finish Last In The NFC East (-120)

This seems like a layup. An offseason ownership change brought chaos off the field, while a shaky defense and rookie quarterback brought even more uncertainty between the white lines. Signal-caller Sam Howell is intriguing as a fantasy flier but not as a winning QB. Betting on the Commanders to finish last in this division is an easy play given the talent of the other NFC East teams.

Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Hurts OVER 3,700 Passing Yards (-110)

Hurts could threaten an MVP case (+1100), but his new five-year, $255-million extension suggests the Eagles will want their star quarterback in the pocket more in 2023. Last season, the 25-year-old racked up 3,701 passing yards in 15 games, averaging only 30 attempts per contest. If there’s even a marginal increase in his passing volume, the yards will follow suit.

NFC North Best Bets

Detroit Lions - OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

The Lions' rebuild is over. They won nine games last season, nearly made the playoffs, and only improved in the offseason. With Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook both leaving the NFC North, too, the door is wide open for Detroit to take a step forward. I'm not entirely sure they'll win the division, but they can snag 10 wins for sure.

Minnesota Vikings - To Win Division (+275)

Yes, the Minnesota Vikings were frauds last year. They weren't a true talent 13-win team and they weren't Super Bowl contenders. But, I don't think they should be completely counted out this season. Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, and Alex Mattison is still the core of a solid offense and some offseason additions to the D should help secure things on that end. The NFC North is wide open, and the Vikings are the best value to step up and take it.

Green Bay Packers - Christian Watson UNDER 850.5 receiving yards (-115)

Christian Watson had 611 yards and seven touchdowns last year. It was a great rookie season and surprising for many, sure. But that was with Aaron Rodgers at QB. Now he's got Jordan Love and another high draft pick receiver in Jayden Reed alongside Romeo Doubs competing for touches. I'm not sure where Watson's finding another 250 yards this year.

Chicago Bears - D.J. Moore OVER 62.5 Receptions (-105)

DJ Moore has had over 62.5 receptions in each of his last four seasons. Now, he projects to be the focal point of Chicago's passing attack. I get why you'd be scared off by Justin Fields as the passer, but in preseason Fields looked pretty good and it seemed like Moore was going to be a new favorite target of his. I like Moore's chances for another big season.

NFC South Best Bets

New Orleans Saints - Chris Olave Most Regular Receiving Yards In NFC South (+150)

Earning over 1,000 yards in his rookie season, the Ohio State product’s value will inflate with Derek Carr taking over as QB1. With another year of experience under his belt, Olave will be taking on a new role for this Saints’ group.

Atlanta Falcons - NFC South Winner (+175)

All faith is put into young quarterback Desmond Ridder, who joined the Falcons during their offseason rebuild. But, Atlanta’s crappy defense that allowed 362.1 YPG has been overturned and will help ease Ridder into his new promotion. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - UNDER 4.5 Regular Season Wins (+235)

Who knows what to expect from Baker Mayfield, who deals with his own inconsistent woes, and the Bucs who have lost crucial depth to salary shifts and injuries, including center Ryan Jensen. WR Mike Evans doesn’t seem devoted to Tampa Bay, refraining from contract talks with trade or free agency rumors lingering. 

Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young Most Regular Season TDs In NFC South (+160)

Let’s give the first-overall pick a chance here as the former Alabama signal-caller preps for his first NFL season. Luckily, Young has plenty of options to toss to including DJ Chark Jr. and Adam Thielen. 

NFC West Best Bets

Arizona Cardinals - UNDER 4.5 Wins (-125)

The Cardinals want to be as bad as possible. The tank, as they say, is on. The goal is to be the worst team in football. And over the past five seasons, no team has bottomed out with more than three wins. Take the UNDER on their 4.5-win total.

Los Angeles Rams - UNDER 6.5 Wins (+110)

“We’re the boring Rams this year” according to GM Les Snead. The Rams have over $70 million in dead cap space and they don’t plan on making a big trade during the year. There’s zero chance they have a better year than 2022 where they picked up five wins.

San Francisco 49ers - Brock Purdy OVER 24.5 Passing TDs

His sample size is small, but in 9 games last season, Purdy threw for 1,374 yards and 13 TDs. At that pace, he’s throwing for 2,400+ yards and 35 TDs. He’s still an unproven quantity in the NFL but the Niners clearly think he’s the real deal after shipping Trey Lance to Dallas.

Seattle Seahawks - DK Metcalf OVER 900.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

DK Metcalf has yet to put up less than 900 receiving yards in an NFL season. Why would it happen this year? The Seahawks have a ton of talent and a rejuvenated Geno Smith. After we all doubted the Seahawks last year I’m not going to make the same mistake twice. Metcalf will absolutely clear his receiving yard prop.

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