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NFL Trend: Patriots over rested Bengals

As if the New England Patriots needed more problems after getting lashed by the Chiefs on Monday, they play a rested Cincinnati team in Week 5.

But while the Pats are on a short week and facing a 3-0 Bengals team that is coming off a bye and has extra rest on its side, history says the rested team is not a lock to win.

It’s an interesting scenario and handicappers may jump to the conclusion that the rested team enjoying two weeks of healing and practice should handle the team coming off a Monday Nighter with just six days to get ready. But look before you leap.

ADVERTISEMENT: The Pats are rare home underdogs, see the latest line at Bovada.

This exact scenario happened three times in 2013, with a road team coming off its bye week playing a home team on a short week (having played on Monday Night Football). All three times, the rested road team won and covered. Sounds good so far for the Bengals to remain perfect and for the Patriots' woes to continue.

But before last season, this situation was almost a lock to bet the team on short rest. The Steelers beat the Jets in Week 6, the Titans beat the Rams in Week 9, and the Lions beat the Bears in Week 10 in this exact situation that the Bengals find themselves in this week.

2013 games, rested teams 3-0 SU and ATS . . .

Away

 

Home

 

Week

Line

Date

PIT

19

NYJ

6

6

PK

Oct.13, 2013

TEN

28

STL

21

9

3

Nov.3, 2013

DET

21

CHI

19

10

1

Nov.10, 2013

But will that trend continue or will the ghost of short-rest teams past re-appear to hand Patriots bettors a payout at the sportsbook? Between 2003 and 2012, this situation of the schedule makers giving a short-rest team a game against a bye-week team happened 16 times.

The rested team covered the spread only twice! According to the Odds Shark NFL database, the mark is 2-13-1 ATS. It means the supposedly fatigued team was able to rebound quickly and defeat the rested opponents. The games are listed below.

And if you wondered about the Patriots as home underdogs, it doesn’t happen very often. In nine games as home dogs since Sept. 2001, the Pats roared to a 7-2 SU mark and 8-1 ATS record. Clearly they respond well to being called home underdogs.

2003-2012 games, rested teams 2-8-1 ATS when they were on the road . . .

Away

 

Home

 

Week

Line

Date

SEA

13

GB

35

5

-1

Oct. 5, 2013

SF

15

NYG

33

7

-9.5

Oct. 21, 2007

OAK

3

NO

34

6

-7

Oct.12, 2008

GB

16

TEN

19

9

-3

Nov. 2, 2008

WAS

17

ATL

31

9

-8.5

Nov. 8, 2009

DEN

18

MIA

15

7

1

Oct. 23, 2011

SD

21

NYJ

27

7

0

Oct. 23, 2011

GB

45

SD

38

9

5.5

Nov. 6, 2011

DET

13

CHI

37

10

-2.5

Nov. 13, 2011

PIT

13

KC

9

12

10.5

Nov. 27, 2011

MIN

10

CHI

28

12

-6

Nov. 25, 2012

2003-2012 games where rested team was at home, rested teams were 0-5 ATS . . .

Away

 

Home

 

Week

Line

Date

MIN

31

GB

34

10

-5

Nov. 14, 2004

SD

27

OAK

14

6

1

Oct.16, 2005

IND

31

CAR

7

8

7

Oct. 28, 2007

GB

33

KC

22

9

-2.5

Nov. 4, 2007

IND

24

PHI

26

9

-3

Nov. 7, 2010

 

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