NFL Betting Trends: Week 6
Seattle's coming off its bye week and heads to Chicago as an underdog in Week 6 of the NFL season. With the way underdogs are biting, do they deserve your money this week? The trends say no.
The Seahawks must hate being away from home because they've been a total disaster on the road for quite awhile. Seattle is currently riding a four-game road losing streak during which they're also 0-4 ATS. Look back a little further and you'll find they're 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 road games.
If you go back even more things have to get better though, right? Nope. In their last 20 road games the Seahawks are an abysmal 3-17 SU and 5-15 ATS.
It's not just wins and losses - check out the NFL power rankings here at OddsShark.com and they are 30th in adjusted power (lousy stats against teams with losing records).
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The trends suggesting Seattle's in trouble this week aren't just road trends, though. As we already mentioned the Seahawks are coming off their bye week. In their last 11 games after their bye Seattle is 1-10 ATS. When the Seahawks head to Solider Field this weekend, put your money on the Bears.
The biggest favorite this weekend are the Pittsburgh Steelers, down as a 13-point favorite at home versus the Cleveland Browns. Most of the time this season a big spread like that has meant an ATS loss for the favorite. What do the trends say about the Steelers?
Pittsburgh has won six straight and 10 of their last 11 at home against the Browns. Their ATS record in those 11 games is only 6-5. The Steelers are always tough at home no matter who they're facing, and in their last 16 at Heinz Field they're a solid 13-3 SU. Again, though, their ATS record isn't anywhere near as good at 8-7-1.
The difference-maker for bettors could be the Steelers' record as a huge favorite. In their last five games as a double-digit favorite the Steelers are only 2-3 SU and a lame 0-5 ATS. One of those losses includes a 13-6 defeat at the hand of the Browns as a 10-point favorite.
With the way underdogs are performing this season the Browns look like a winning bet ATS.
The Seahawks aren't the only team on the schedule this week with bye-week trends that could help bettors pocket some cash. Here's a rundown of trends involving teams either coming out of or heading into their bye week:
More NFL Trends for Week 6 courtesy of Bovada, home of the industry's most generous bonuses (deposit $500, get $500 free):
- New England is 6-2 ATS in their last eight coming off their bye week
- Seattle has posted 10 straight OVER results coming off their bye week
- Detroit has lost six straight ATS entering their bye week
- Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last eight entering their bye week
Week 6 NFL trends by game:
Seahawks played 10 straight OVERs after a BYE
6 of past 7 Bears Oct home games went OVER
Dolphins 1-10 SU past 11 Oct road games
Pack 6-0 SU, 4-1-1 past 6 at home
Texans 6-2 ATS past 8 games before a BYE
Road team covered 4 of past 5 meetings
Patriots 6-2 ATS past 8 games after BYE week
Ravens 1-6 SU past 7 vs Patriots (won in 2009)
Lions lost 6 straight ATS before a BYE week
Giants 1-4 ATS past 5 at home to Detroit
Falcons 1-9-1 ATS past 11 games vs Eagles
UNDER is 9-1 past 10 meetings
Browns 1-4 SU, 4-1 ATS past 5 vs Steelers
OVER is 6-1-1 past 8 meetings at Pitt
All 6 meetings since 1988 went OVER
Chargers 1-5 SU & ATS past 6 Oct road games
Saints 6-2 ATS past 8 trips to Tampa
Bucs UNDER 9-2 past 11 (past 2 went OVER)
Jets 7-1 SU past 8 road games
Played 5 straight home UNDERs in October
Past 3 meetings here all played OVER total
Raiders 1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS past 16 Oct on road
Vikings 5-0 ATS past 5 vs Cowboys
Cowboys 3-9 ATS past 12 Oct road games
6 of past 7 meetings played OVER the total
Redskins 1-6 ATS past 7 October home games
UNDER is 7-2 past 9 Titan games in AFC South
Jags 2-6 ATS past 8 as dog of 4 or less pts