The New England Patriots have been underdogs only 14 times in the last seven years. They covered the spread in 11 of those occasions.
New England is the only team in the league that hasn’t been a home underdog in the last seven seasons. Depending on how the season plays out, a late November home game against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos could change that. The Patriots are currently listed as 2.5-point favorites over the Broncos at sportsbooks offering NFL Games of the Year lines.
Along with the Patriots, the New York Giants also have been excellent underdogs to bet. Tom Coughlin’s team is 28-13 ATS as underdogs since 2006, including an impressive 23-13 ATS mark as road dogs and a pair of covers against the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
The Seattle Seahawks have been the best home underdog to bet, going 17-7-1 ATS. Away from Qwest Field, however, Seattle has struggled. The Seahawks are 17-26-1 against the spread as road underdogs, the worst mark in the league.
The Detroit Lions have the worst ATS record as underdogs. The Lions are 36-43-3 ATS as dogs in the last seven seasons.
Overall, underdogs have gone 931-851-39 against the spread, a 52.2 percent covering rate. It takes a 52.4 win percentage for bettors to overcome the standard 10 percent juice bookies charge. For example, you have to bet $110 to win $100.
NFL records vs. spread as underdogs in last seven seasons
| || ||W||L||P||ATS Cover %|
|New England|| ||11||3|| ||78.5|| |
|NY Giants|| ||28||15|| ||65.1|| |
|San Diego|| ||17||10||1||62.9|| |
|Green Bay|| ||22||13||2||62.8|| |
|Pittsburgh|| ||13||9|| ||59|| |
|Miami|| ||33||23||3||58.9|| |
|Indianapolis|| ||22||17|| ||56.4|| |
|Arizona|| ||40||31||2||56.3|| |
|Tennessee|| ||31||26||1||54.3|| |
|Washington|| ||39||33||7||54.1|| |
|Philadelphia|| ||20||17|| ||54|| |
|Cleveland|| ||41||35||3||53.9|| |
|Cincinnati|| ||32||28|| ||53.3|| |
|Baltimore|| ||25||22||2||53.1|| |
|Dallas|| ||17||15|| ||53.1|| |
|San Fran|| ||30||27||3||52.6|| |
|Kansas City|| ||44||40|| ||52.3|| |
|Houston|| ||28||26|| ||51.8|| |
|Buffalo|| ||37||35||1||51.3|| |
|NY Jets|| ||29||28|| ||50.8|| |
|Seattle|| ||34||33||2||50.7|| |
|Atlanta|| ||24||24||1||50|| |
|New Orleans|| ||16||16||1||50|| |
|Oakland|| ||45||45|| ||50|| |
|Carolina|| ||29||30||1||49.1|| |
|Tampa Bay|| ||35||37|| ||48.6|| |
|Denver|| ||27||29|| ||48.2|| |
|Minnesota|| ||27||29||4||48.2|| |
|Jacksonville|| ||35||39|| ||47.2|| |
|St. Louis|| ||42||47|| ||47.1|| |
|Chicago|| ||22||26||2||45.8|| |
|Detroit|| ||36||43||3||45.5|| |