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NFL Championship Game Picks, Results

Bad news for New England Patriots haters – the Pats will win and cover the spread again in the AFC championship game, according to the Odds Shark prediction computer.

The computer is 7-1 SU in the playoffs so far, but just 3-5 ATS. It was a perfect 4-0 in picking totals last weekend, with all four Divisional Playoff games going OVER the total.

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The picks engine has the Patriots beating the Baltimore Ravens 40-29 Sunday and advancing to Super Bowl XVLII. They opened as 7.5-point home favorites but were quickly bet up to -9 by Monday afternoon (check for line updates at Bovada during the week).

[ 49ers vs Falcons Matchup Report | Patriots vs Ravens Matchup Report ]

If the computer is correct, they will face the San Francisco 49ers, who will win by the slightest of margins.

The computer predicted a 29.4 to 29.2 result, the closest of any game we have seen in months. Atlanta, which nearly blew its last game, opened as 3-point home underdogs, a surprise to many. But after the 49ers handled Green Bay, many believe they are the NFC’s best team.

Bettors quickly backed the 49ers and pushed the spread down to -4 at BetOnline and Bovada.

Trends are hard to come by at this level of the playoffs. Three of the past four games played UNDER the total, although the computer is picking both games OVER this year.

Road teams have been a marginal bet at 4-2 ATS the past three seasons. NFC road teams are 4-1 ATS the past five seasons.

New England has won but failed to cover the past two times in this role. The Ravens have been here three times since 2000 and are 2-1 ATS, while the Falcons lost here in 2004 (27-10 to Philly) and the 49ers lost a year ago to the Giants.

NFL Championship Results since 2000


Year Road Score Home Score SU win HomeLine ATS win Total OU
2011 Baltimore 20 New England 23 NE -7 BAL 49 U
2011 NY Giants 20 SanFrancisco 17 NYG -2.5 NYG 41 U
2010 Green Bay 21 Chicago 14 GB 3.5 GB 42 U
2010 NY Jets 19 Pittsburgh 24 PIT -4 PIT 38 O
2009 NY Jets 17 Indianapolis 30 IND -7.5 IND 40 O
2009 Minnesota 28 New Orleans 31 NO -4 MIN 54 O
2008 Philadelphia 25 Arizona 32 ARI 3.5 ARI 47 O
2008 Baltimore 14 Pittsburgh 23 PIT -6 PIT 35.5 O
2007 San Diego 12 New England 21 NE -14 SD 46.5 U
2007 NY Giants 23 Green Bay 20 NYG -7 NYG 40.5 O
2006 New Orleans 14 Chicago 39 CHI -3 CHI 42.5 O
2006 New England 34 Indianapolis 38 IND -3.5 IND 47 O
2005 Pittsburgh 34 Denver 17 PIT -3 PIT 41.5 O
2005 Carolina 14 Seattle 34 SEA -6 SEA 44 O
2004 Atlanta 10 Philadelphia 27 PHI -4.5 PHI 41 U
2004 New England 41 Pittsburgh 27 NE 2 NE 38 O
2003 Indianapolis 14 New England 24 NE -3.5 NE 42.5 U
2003 Carolina 14 Philadelphia 3 CAR -5 CAR 38 U
2002 Tampa Bay 27 Philadelphia 10 TB -4 TB 34 O
2002 Tennessee 24 Oakland 41 OAK -7.5 OAK 47 O
2001 New England 24 Pittsburgh 17 NE -8 NE 36 O
2001 Philadelphia 24 St. Louis 29 STL -11.5 PHI 51.5 O
2000 Baltimore 16 Oakland 3 BAL -6.5 BAL 36.5 U
2000 Minnesota 0 New York 41 NYG 2 NYG 43 U