Bad news for New England Patriots haters – the Pats will win and cover the spread again in the AFC championship game, according to the Odds Shark prediction computer.
The computer is 7-1 SU in the playoffs so far, but just 3-5 ATS. It was a perfect 4-0 in picking totals last weekend, with all four Divisional Playoff games going OVER the total.
ADVERTISEMENT: We’re down to four teams and there is still plenty of Super Bowl future value on the Falcons and Ravens. Pocket a generous bonus and enjoy tons of fun betting props at .
The picks engine has the Patriots beating the Baltimore Ravens 40-29 Sunday and advancing to Super Bowl XVLII. They opened as 7.5-point home favorites but were quickly bet up to -9 by Monday afternoon (check for line updates at during the week).
[ 49ers vs Falcons Matchup Report | Patriots vs Ravens Matchup Report ]
If the computer is correct, they will face the San Francisco 49ers, who will win by the slightest of margins.
The computer predicted a 29.4 to 29.2 result, the closest of any game we have seen in months. Atlanta, which nearly blew its last game, opened as 3-point home underdogs, a surprise to many. But after the 49ers handled Green Bay, many believe they are the NFC’s best team.
Bettors quickly backed the 49ers and pushed the spread down to -4 at BetOnline and .
Trends are hard to come by at this level of the playoffs. Three of the past four games played UNDER the total, although the computer is picking both games OVER this year.
Road teams have been a marginal bet at 4-2 ATS the past three seasons. NFC road teams are 4-1 ATS the past five seasons.
New England has won but failed to cover the past two times in this role. The Ravens have been here three times since 2000 and are 2-1 ATS, while the Falcons lost here in 2004 (27-10 to Philly) and the 49ers lost a year ago to the Giants.
NFL Championship Results since 2000
| Year | Road | Score | Home | Score | SU win | HomeLine | ATS win | Total | OU |
| 2011 | Baltimore | 20 | New England | 23 | NE | -7 | BAL | 49 | U |
| 2011 | NY Giants | 20 | SanFrancisco | 17 | NYG | -2.5 | NYG | 41 | U |
| 2010 | Green Bay | 21 | Chicago | 14 | GB | 3.5 | GB | 42 | U |
| 2010 | NY Jets | 19 | Pittsburgh | 24 | PIT | -4 | PIT | 38 | O |
| 2009 | NY Jets | 17 | Indianapolis | 30 | IND | -7.5 | IND | 40 | O |
| 2009 | Minnesota | 28 | New Orleans | 31 | NO | -4 | MIN | 54 | O |
| 2008 | Philadelphia | 25 | Arizona | 32 | ARI | 3.5 | ARI | 47 | O |
| 2008 | Baltimore | 14 | Pittsburgh | 23 | PIT | -6 | PIT | 35.5 | O |
| 2007 | San Diego | 12 | New England | 21 | NE | -14 | SD | 46.5 | U |
| 2007 | NY Giants | 23 | Green Bay | 20 | NYG | -7 | NYG | 40.5 | O |
| 2006 | New Orleans | 14 | Chicago | 39 | CHI | -3 | CHI | 42.5 | O |
| 2006 | New England | 34 | Indianapolis | 38 | IND | -3.5 | IND | 47 | O |
| 2005 | Pittsburgh | 34 | Denver | 17 | PIT | -3 | PIT | 41.5 | O |
| 2005 | Carolina | 14 | Seattle | 34 | SEA | -6 | SEA | 44 | O |
| 2004 | Atlanta | 10 | Philadelphia | 27 | PHI | -4.5 | PHI | 41 | U |
| 2004 | New England | 41 | Pittsburgh | 27 | NE | 2 | NE | 38 | O |
| 2003 | Indianapolis | 14 | New England | 24 | NE | -3.5 | NE | 42.5 | U |
| 2003 | Carolina | 14 | Philadelphia | 3 | CAR | -5 | CAR | 38 | U |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 27 | Philadelphia | 10 | TB | -4 | TB | 34 | O |
| 2002 | Tennessee | 24 | Oakland | 41 | OAK | -7.5 | OAK | 47 | O |
| 2001 | New England | 24 | Pittsburgh | 17 | NE | -8 | NE | 36 | O |
| 2001 | Philadelphia | 24 | St. Louis | 29 | STL | -11.5 | PHI | 51.5 | O |
| 2000 | Baltimore | 16 | Oakland | 3 | BAL | -6.5 | BAL | 36.5 | U |
| 2000 | Minnesota | 0 | New York | 41 | NYG | 2 | NYG | 43 | U |
