NFL Computer Picks: Divisional Playoffs

It’s playoff time and NFL spreads are tight, in some cases mirroring the OddsShark Computer projections.

However, that didn’t stop the Computer from going 3-1 against the number in Wild Card Weekend action.

This week, the Computer believes the San Francisco 49ers-Carolina Panthers game is a tossup, and the San Diego Chargers-Denver Broncos contest will be decided within a point of the line. The Computer gives the smallest of edges to the 49ers over the Panthers in a game that has seen the spread drop to a pick ‘em.

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But the Computer does believe there’s value in the two remaining underdogs in the other two NFL Divisional Playoff games.

The Indianapolis Colts, fresh off their dramatic come-from-behind win over the Kansas City Chiefs, head to Foxboro as heavy underdogs to the New England Patriots. Most sportsbooks had the Patriots as 7-point favorites as of Thursday. The Computer thinks Saturday night’s contest is much more of a field-goal game.

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The Colts have covered the spread in four of their last five trips to New England, and the Patriots are just 2-6 against the spread at home in the playoffs since 2008.

The OddsShark Computer also likes the New Orleans Saints to keep their game at Seattle closer than oddsmakers think. The Seahawks were 8-point favorites at most shops as of Thursday. They’ve been dominant at home, and the Saints have been bad on the road. However, the Computer believes Drew Brees and company will play better than they did in early December, when the Seahawks pasted the Saints 34-7 in a Monday night game in raucous Seattle.

Something to note: The Computer likes all four games to go OVER the total. In the past three seasons, 11 of the 12 Divisional Playoff games have gone OVER the total.

OddsShark Divisional Playoffs Computer Picks

San Francisco (26) at Carolina (25.8)
New Orleans (25.0) at Seattle (30.6)
San Diego (28.7) at Denver (37.1)
Indianapolis (25.5) at New England (28.5)