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NFL Computer Picks: Week 11 Bets

Three giant games highlight the Week 11 card, and the OddsShark Computer believes they’ll each be close.

Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in an intriguing AFC West primetime showdown. The Computer has the Broncos handing the Chiefs their first loss, but in a much-closer game than the point spread indicates.

The Broncos were favored by nine at most books as of Friday, but just 7.5 at BetOnline which is the best spread for Bronco bettors. That’s too many points for the Computer, which predicts a 38-35 win for Denver.

The Chiefs have scored more than 30 points only once this season in a 31-7 win over the New York Giants. They have not allowed more than 17 points all season and are coming off a bye week.

The Broncos are averaging 41.1 points per game, with eight of their nine games going OVER the total. Nine of the Broncos’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total with one push. Denver hammered the Chiefs in both meetings last season with Manning under center.

But this is an entirely different Chiefs team with an offense built to keep Manning and the potent Broncos offense off the field. The KC defense is the league’s best and will make it tough for the Broncos even when they do get their shot.

It’s the first of two straight Sunday night showcase games for the Broncos, who travel to New England next week.

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In the Monday night game, the Computer likes the Carolina Panthers to continue their surge with a win over Tom Brady and the visiting Patriots. Cam Newton has led the Panthers to five straight wins, including last week’s impressive win at San Francisco.

This week’s point spread has the Panthers favored by 1.5. The Computer likes Cam Newton and Carolina to knock off the Patriots by four points, with around 54 points being scored.

The 49ers face another difficult test this week, when up-and-down Colin Kaepernick leads his team into New Orleans to take on Drew Brees and the Saints, who have been practicably untouchable in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans has covered the spread in 21 of 26 home games.

The Saints are 3-point favorites over the 49ers. The Computer believes the point spread is spot-on and has the Saints squeaking out a 31-28 win.

On the season, the Computer is struggling, going 68-76-3 ATS to this point. After a hot start, the Computer has also hit the skids on totals, going 68-75-4. Last week was especially tough - the Computer went 5-9 ATS and 4-10 on totals.

It was bang-on Thursday, predicting a 3-point victory for Indianapolis at Tennessee.

Week 11 OddsShark Computer Picks

New Orleans (31.3) at San Francisco (28.2)

San Diego (22) at Miami (19.3)

Detroit (24.1) at Pittsburgh (17.9)

Kansas City (34.7) at Denver (37.7)

NY Jets (14.5) at Buffalo (15.3)

Arizona (19.2) at Jacksonville (2.2)

New England (25) at Carolina (29.1)

Minnesota (16.6) at Seattle (32.4)

Baltimore (22.6) at Chicago (23.9)

Cleveland (16.6) at Cincinnati (23.6)

Atlanta (13.7) at Tampa Bay (13.9)

Green Bay (25.6) at NY Giants (14.2)

Washington (18.9) at Philadelphia (25.5)

Oakland (14.9) at Houston (12.7)

Indianapolis (24) at Tennessee (21)