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NFL Computer Picks: Wild Card Weekend

Favorites have dominated Wild Card weekend, going 7-1 against the spread the past two seasons. The OddsShark NFL Computer thinks that will change this week, with all four road teams covering the spread and two dogs winning outright.

The Computer likes a pair of road underdogs to spring upsets this weekend. It’s taking the New Orleans Saints to go into Philadelphia and knock off the Eagles. It also likes the Kansas City Chiefs to go on the road and beat the Indianapolis Colts.

Backing the Saints on the road has not been a good bet this season. New Orleans went 1-7 against the spread on the road this season and 7-0-1 ATS at home, a wild statistical anomaly that has bettors scratching their heads. The Saints dropped two stinkers on the road at Seattle and at St. Louis, but also played well in close losses at New England and Carolina.

Which version of Drew Brees and the Saints will show up Saturday in frigid Philly? Temperatures are expected to be in the 20s for the 8pm ET kickoff.

The Eagles were 2.5-point favorites as of Thursday.

The Computer also is backing Andy Reid and the Chiefs, who are 2.5-point road underdogs in Saturday’s first game. The Chiefs went 7-1 against the spread on the road this season and are rested, after playing primarily backups in last week’s close loss at San Diego. Reid is hoping to end the franchise’s seven-game playoff losing streak, which includes three losses to the Colts and dates back to 1990.

It’s also a revenge spot for the Chiefs, who were hammered at home by Andrew Luck and the Colts in Week 16. Luck and the Indianapolis offense controlled the ball, ran 19 more plays than the Chiefs, and scored the game’s last 23 points in an easy win.

The Computer believes the San Francisco 49ers will be too much for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a Week 1 49ers win. The Niners, who reached last year’s Super Bowl, appear to be peaking at the right time and enter the playoffs having won seven straight games. San Francisco is a 3-point favorite at TopBet. It is the first time in the modern era that the Packers have been home underdogs in the playoffs.

The only home team the OddsShark NFL Computer sees winning is the Cincinnati Bengals, but they’ll be tested by the underdog San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as underdogs, and the Computer believes they’ll cover again Sunday. The Bengals, however, are 11-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last 12 home games.

OddsShark Wild Card Weekend Computer Picks

San Francisco (29.8) at Green Bay (21.4)
New Orleans (28.7) at Philadelphia (25.8)
San Diego (24.2) at Cincinnati (28.6)
Kansas City (28.4) at Indianapolis (24.3)