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NFL Conference Finals Betting Primer

James Harrison Steelers

We're almost at that pot of gold at the end of the rainbow otherwise known as the Super Bowl. The only question is, how much gold will you have in that pot or will you simply be left with nothing but a pot to piss in? Sorry for the vulgar language, I felt uneasy using that word, but it wouldn't have the same impact if I used the medical term — urinate.

Anyways, I wanted to get your attention so you can focus and pad that bankroll of yours before the biggest sports betting extravaganza of the year. If you're planning on going with your gut this weekend, don't. I've compiled a list of big-time stats and trends for each game below to help you make educated betting decisions.

Before you handicap the individual teams and matchups, there's two huge conference finals trends you need to be aware of. With both home teams being favored, bettors should be aware that the favored team is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last three years in conference championship games. Also in the last three years in this round, home teams have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS.

Enjoy the action this weekend and keep chasing that paper!

Packers at Falcons
  • The visiting team is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games in this matchup.
  • The Falcons are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as home favorites.
  • The Falcons have scored 30 or more points in six of their last seven home games.
  • The Packers have scored 30 or more points in six consecutive games.
  • The Packers are allowing 297.2 passing yards on the road — second-worst in the NFL. The Falcons are second in the NFL with 313.1 passing yards at home.
  • The Packers are 4-1 SU in their last five games against the Falcons.
  • The Packers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games on the road against the Falcons.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Falcons' last five games in the playoffs at home.
  • The Falcons are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games against teams with winning records.
  • The Falcons are 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the NFC North.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Falcons' last 11 games at home after winning their two most recent home games.
  • The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
  • The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the playoffs.
  • The Packers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.
  • The total has gone OVER in 20 of the Packers' last 24 games against the NFC South.
  • The Packers are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games after winning as an underdog.
  • The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference championship games.
  • In one career conference final game, Julio Jones went off for 182 yards and two TDs.
  • In one career conference final game, Matt Ryan threw for 396 yards, three TDs and one INT.
  • In two career conference finals games, Aaron Rodgers threw for 422 yards, one TD and four INTs with a 55.6 QB rating that is by far his lowest of any round.
  • In five career games vs the Falcons, Aaron Rodgers has 13 TDs and one INT with a 118 QB rating that is his second-highest vs any team he’s played more than twice.
Steelers at Patriots
  • The Patriots are 25-8-3 ATS in their last 36 home games.
  • The Patriots are 19-3 SU in their last 22 games in the playoffs at home.
  • In their last 30 games as a favorite in the 5.5- to 7-point range, the Patriots are 29-1 SU and 18-7-5 ATS.
  • The Steelers have won nine straight games and have covered the spread in five consecutive road games.
  • The Patriots didn’t allow a player to rush for more than 90 yards against them all season.
  • The Patriots allowed a league-low six rushing TDs during the regular season.
  • When coming off a playoff game where they committed three or more turnovers, New England is 0-3 SU and ATS.
  • The Patriots are allowing a league-low 1.4 TDs per game at home.
  • The Steelers are averaging 2.1 TDs per game on the road compared with 3.6 at home.
  • Tom Brady in nine career games vs Steelers — 24 TDs, three INTs, 114.2 QB rating (his second-highest vs any team).
  • Tom Brady in 10 conference finals games — 12 TDs, 12 INTs, 76.3 QB rating (his lowest of any playoff round).
  • Ben Roethlisberger in five conference finals games — five TDs, five INTs, 81.8 QB rating.
  • Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell have combined for 876 total yards in their last three games.
  • Antonio Brown has 100+ receiving yards in four consecutive playoff games.
  • Since Bill Belichick took over as Patriots head coach in 2000, New England is 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in 12 games vs the Steelers.
  • The Steelers are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Patriots' last six conference championship games.
  • The Patriots are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home against teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 16 of the Steelers' last 22 games.
  • The Steelers are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games in the playoffs as underdog.
  • The Steelers are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Steelers' last 11 games as underdog.
  • The teams have topped 50.5 points just four times in their last 12 matchups.

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