NFL home underdogs turn big profits
Big home underdogs have generated huge NFL betting profits over the past four seasons and two teams (probably three) will be in this situation in Week 8.
In the past 20 games featuring a double-digit home underdog, the big favorite has covered the spread ONLY TWICE. For those of you counting at home, that is an 18-2 ATS run double-digit home underdogs.
Minnesota was sitting as a 10-point dog to visiting Green Bay and St. Louis - minus Sam Bradford and amid rumors they had reached out to retired Brett Favre this week - was laying 12 points in the Monday Nighter to Seattle. No line was set as of Thursday in Jacksonville's home encounter with San Francisco, but most experts believe that line will open around +15.
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This situation has happened just once in 2013 so far and Buffalo nearly pulled the upset over New England in Week 1, losing 23-21 as 10-point pups. A year ago, four teams were big home dogs and went 1-3 ATS. Denver was the line to team to cover (beating Oakland).
Before that, betting against big road favorites was money in the bank with a 14-1 ATS streak.
On the flip side in Week 8 NFL odds, there are several big home favorites as well. New Orleans lays 13 to Buffalo and Denver gives the same to Washington. KC may move to double-digit home chalk status (they are currently -9 to Cleveland).
Check out the most recent examples of double-digit home underdogs. (Bold Italics are favorites that covered the spread).
|20/12/2009||Houston||16||St. Louis||13||14||St. Louis|
|30/10/2011||New Orleans||21||St. Louis||31||13.5||St. Louis|
|27/11/2011||Pittsburgh||13||Kansas City||9||10.5||Kansas City|
|18/12/2011||Green Bay||14||Kansas City||19||11.5||Kansas City|
|01/01/2012||San Francisco||34||St. Louis||27||12.5||St. Louis|
|25/11/2012||Denver||17||Kansas City||9||10||Kansas City|