NFL home underdogs turn big profits

Big home underdogs have generated huge NFL betting profits over the past four seasons and two teams (probably three) will be in this situation in Week 8.

In the past 20 games featuring a double-digit home underdog, the big favorite has covered the spread ONLY TWICE. For those of you counting at home, that is an 18-2 ATS run double-digit home underdogs.

Minnesota was sitting as a 10-point dog to visiting Green Bay and St. Louis - minus Sam Bradford and amid rumors they had reached out to retired Brett Favre this week -  was laying 12 points in the Monday Nighter to Seattle. No line was set as of Thursday in Jacksonville's home encounter with San Francisco, but most experts believe that line will open around +15.

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This situation has happened just once in 2013 so far and Buffalo nearly pulled the upset over New England in Week 1, losing 23-21 as 10-point pups. A year ago, four teams were big home dogs and went 1-3 ATS. Denver was the line to team to cover (beating Oakland).

Before that, betting against big road favorites was money in the bank with a 14-1 ATS streak.

On the flip side in Week 8 NFL odds, there are several big home favorites as well. New Orleans lays 13 to Buffalo and Denver gives the same to Washington. KC may move to double-digit home chalk status (they are currently -9 to Cleveland).

Check out the most recent examples of double-digit home underdogs. (Bold Italics are favorites that covered the spread).

06/12/2009San Diego30Cleveland2314Cleveland
13/12/2009New Orleans26Atlanta2310Atlanta
20/12/2009Houston16St. Louis1314St. Louis
08/01/2011New Orleans36Seattle4110Seattle
18/09/2011Green Bay30Carolina2310Carolina
23/10/2011Green Bay33Minnesota2710Minnesota
30/10/2011New Orleans21St. Louis3113.5St. Louis
27/11/2011Pittsburgh13Kansas City910.5Kansas City
18/12/2011Green Bay14Kansas City1911.5Kansas City
01/01/2012San Francisco34St. Louis2712.5St. Louis
25/11/2012Denver17Kansas City910Kansas City
23/12/2012New England23Jacksonville1614Jacksonville
08/09/2013New England23Buffalo2110Buffalo