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NFL Injuries In Week 2 That Impact The Odds

Hopefully you read my piece this week on ‘Injuries That Really Matter When Betting Football’. To follow up with that, here is a look at a handful of injuries in Week 2 that are impacting the betting line. I’ll identify what value I believe oddsmakers are giving to these injuries on the opening line and what I feel their actual worth is to the spread. 

(Find complete NFL odds & opening numbers here.)  

Chiefs offensive line injuries

Oddsmaker’s value: 1 point 
My value: 3 points

Starting left guard and rookie Parker Ehinger suffered a concussion in practice Wednesday and starting right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif missed practice with a high ankle sprain. Both could be back but at the least I don’t think Duvernay-Tardif will be 100 percent if he plays. That’s a big blow to the O-line and these are injuries the betting public often underestimates – especially in a road game against a defense that was pretty solid in a win in Week 1. 

Chargers WR Keenan Allen (torn ACL, out for season)

Oddsmaker’s value: 1.5 points 
My value: 3 points 

Allen is one of the few receivers I would ever give a value this high. He is a do-everything ball catcher for this Chargers offense and he will be sorely missed on San Diego’s offense. The numbers last week are just one example of his value to this team. The Chargers had three touchdowns on three possessions with him and completed six third-down chances. They went 1-for-9 on third downs without him and Rivers went from a 108.6 passer rating to a 65.6. 

Browns QB Robert Griffin III (shoulder, out Week 2) 

Oddsmaker’s value: 1/2-point 
My value: 0 points 

This is the Browns, people. Put whoever you want back there at QB and they’re not going to be a whole lot better. 

Oakland Raiders offensive line

Oddsmaker’s value: 1.5 points 
My value: 2.5 points

These starters all missed practice on Wednesday for Oakland: center Rodney Hudson (knee), guard Gabe Jackson (knee), right tackle Menelik Watson (groin). Backup Matt McCants (knee) missed practice also. The spread opened with the Raiders at Oakland -4.5 and I would’ve put them at 7-point favorites if they were all healthy. Some reports say Hudson and Jackson are expected to play but keep an eye on this one. Also keep in mind Atlanta appears to be the same horrible tackling team it was last season if Week 1 is any indicator. 

Follow me on Twitter @JonnyOddsShark

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