NFL Line Moves: Week 4
As always, a look at the week’s line movements provides some interesting insight into what the public is thinking as they make their bets and sway the lines.
One clear theme heading into Week 4 is that while the media might be focused on the New York Yankees heading to the playoffs, New Yorkers (and the general public) still have plenty of love for their Giants and Jets.
Two weeks ago, the New York Giants were blown out by the Indianapolis Colts. Last week, they were blown out at home by the Tennessee Titans. Despite their recent struggles, the Giants opened as 3-point favorites to the Chicago Bears, who are 3-0 and coming off of a huge win Monday night over Green Bay.
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Bettors didn’t let the Bears’ success or the Giants’ struggles dissuade them from betting on New York, and moving the line a whole point to make the Giants a 4-point favorite at Bovada, great news for Bears backers who can get better underdog odds. Troubling news this week that the New York Jets’ franchise cornerback Darrelle Revis will likely be out against the Buffalo Bills also didn’t dissuade bettors, who have moved the line a half point from New York -4.5 to New York -5 at Bovada.
The Jets beat Miami on Sunday night, while the Bills fell to 0-3 (but covered the spread) against the New England Patriots. New England plays the Dolphins this Monday night in Miami. The line opened as a pick’em at Bovada, but has since moved to make the New England Patriots a 1-point favorite. Bettors don’t seem to be too alarmed by the poor defense New England has played this season (averaging 27.3 points against per game).
Two AFC South favorites, the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, have also seen their spread move a full point this week. Indianapolis is coming off their second straight big win, and opened as a 7-point favorite on the road against Jacksonville, who is coming off of its second straight loss by a margin of 25 points. Bettors were happy to jump on Indianapolis at this price and move the line to Indianapolis -8 at Bovada. Houston’s line movement is a bit trickier to figure out. They opened as a 4-point favorite on the road against Oakland, but have since moved down to be only a 3-point favorite. Sure, they lost handily at home to Dallas and Oakland came very close to beating Arizona on the road last week. But when you look at both teams’ full bodies of work this season,
Houston would seemingly be the more popular choice.
Other slight movements this week include Pittsburgh opening at -1.5 and moving to -1 at home against Baltimore, Philadelphia opening at -6.5 and moving to -6 at home against Washington, and Seattle opening at -1.5 and moving to -1 on the road against St. Louis at Bovada.