It’s been an upside-down season this year in the NFL with underdogs winning like crazy, but last week’s 7-6-1 ATS and 11-3 SU performance by favorites seems to have returned a bit of normalcy.
Because of that, football bettors seem to be loading up on big favorites once again.
Two teams opened as double-digit favorites this week, and both have received enough action to move the point spread against them. Baltimore opened at -12.0 and are now -13.0 at home against Buffalo, while New Orleans opened at -11.5 and are now also -13.0 at home against Cleveland.
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Baltimore is looking to bounce back from an overtime loss to New England, and Buffalo could be the punching bag they need, having given up at least 34 points in four straight game. This will be Buffalo’s third game as a double-digit underdog; they are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, losing ATS at Green Bay but earning the ATS win at New England.
This will also be Cleveland’s third game as a double-digit favorite, and they are also 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. They won ATS against Baltimore earlier this season, but last week lost as a 14-point underdog to Pittsburgh. New Orleans is coming fresh off a 31-6 blowout at Tampa Bay, and will look to win big again this week.
Denver and Seattle have each also seen their lines move against them this week. Denver opened at -7.0 at home over Oakland and are now -8.0, while Seattle opened at -3.0 at home over Arizona and are now -5.5.
Oakland looked awful last week against San Francisco, and their quarterback situation is in question with Jason Campbell’s status unknown, which both likely attribute to the line movement.
Seattle seems to have gained a lot of respect from bettors after their road win over Chicago last week. They are also 2-0 ATS and SU at home this year with wins over San Francisco and San Diego.
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Pittsburgh opened at -2.5 on the road against Miami, but bettors bumped them to -3.0 fairly soon after the opening lines were released. Pittsburgh got Ben Roethlisberger back last week and cruised to a 28-10 win and cover as 14-point favorites over Cleveland while Miami went on the road and upset Green Bay 23-20 in overtime as 3-point underdogs.
Interestingly, Miami has been much better on the road than at home this year; they are 0-2 both SU and ATS at home, but 3-0 SU and ATS on the road.
The one line that moved against an underdog this week was Cincinnati +5.5 moving to +3.5 on the road against Atlanta. Atlanta lost big to Philadelphia last week while Cincinnati had the bye to try to work out their kinks on offense.