Spread surges in Patriots vs Bills opener
The New England Patriots have dominated the Buffalo Bills for the last decade-plus, and they'll try to continue to do so when the AFC East rivals meet for their 2013 season opener Sunday in Orchard Park (1 pm ET, CBS).
As of late this week the Patriots, who have beaten the Bills 23 of the last 25 times they've played, were favored by 11.5 points over home-dogged Buffalo.
Tom Brady and Co. are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine visits to Buffalo, where a rookie quarterback and a new coach await the Pats to start the season.
The Bills are on a 6-2 ATS run their past 8 season openers. The Pats offense usually starts quickly, as their 9-2 mark favoring the OVER in 11 recent September games indicates.
Bettors who were going with the Bills in this one found them originally listed as 5-point underdogs on the betting line at Bovada but it ballooned up to double digits with preseason injuries to Buffalo QBs. Totals bettors have seen that number set earlier in the week at 53 at SportBet, but it has dropped to around 50.
Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Power Rankings at OddsShark have the No. 5-rated Patriots taking on the No. 23-rated Bills in this contest. Handicapping models indicate a 40-20 win for the Patriots on Sunday.
New England Patriots Trends:
When playing in September are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 10-0
Buffalo Bills Trends:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the division are 2-8
A few Patriots at Bills trends to consider:
New England is 18-1 SU in its last 19 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games when playing at home against New England
New England home to NY Jets, Thursday, September 12
Buffalo home to Carolina, Sunday, September 15